Mon. Dec 5th, 2022

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

When the season started, nobody would’ve thought that the Dallas Cowboys could be highway favorites in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers within the NFL Week 10 odds market.

However that’s the place we are actually, displaying how a lot fortunes have modified over the previous 9 weeks. The Cowboys usually are not solely favorites however rising ones for Sunday’s nationwide recreation on FOX and the FOX Sports activities app.

What does that say about Dallas’ fortunes this week and for the remainder of the season? Rex Beyers, a longtime oddsmaker and now head of wagering for PlayUp USA, in addition to FOX Wager senior buying and selling operations supervisor Dylan Brossman provided insights on the place the Cowboys are actually and the way the remainder of the season may shake down.

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Favorites on the Frozen Tundra

When NFL Week 10 opening odds hit betting boards Sunday evening, the Cowboys have been 3.5-point favorites in opposition to the Packers. Which simply goes to indicate how far Aaron Rodgers — the reigning NFL MVP — and his teammates have fallen.

However early bettors — doubtless sharp gamers — have been completely satisfied to put the three.5 factors and extra with the Cowboys. By Monday, Dallas was a consensus 5-point favourite, together with at PlayUp, for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. That mentioned, as dangerous as Inexperienced Bay has been, Beyers feels that is an overreaction by bettors.

“Dallas is painted at -5 as of proper now nearly in every single place. I initially made the sport less expensive, and I do like Inexperienced Bay an excellent deal,” Beyers mentioned. “Dallas is just not essentially an amazing group. The Cowboys rank notches beneath one of the best groups and even 1.5 or two factors worse on a impartial discipline than San Francisco.

“However Inexperienced Bay has been ravaged by accidents, as dangerous as anybody apart from possibly the Chargers. The Packers have been largely getting propped up on the betting window as a result of they’ve obtained probably the most gifted QB within the historical past of the league.”

Nonetheless, the Packers are actually 3-6 straight up (SU) and 3-6 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). Rodgers & Co. are on a shocking five-game SU dropping streak and on a 1-5 ATS slide. So in Beyers’ estimation, the Cowboys now being 5-point favorites — and even 5.5 at some sportsbooks — is much less a product of Dallas (6-2 SU and ATS) being good than of the Packers being completely out of kinds.

“Rodgers has been able to overcoming many deficiencies along with his offense and training for a very long time,” Beyers mentioned. “On condition that the Brewers received a recreation extra just lately than the Packers, it’s clearly been a troubling time. However the pendulum has lastly swung an excessive amount of in opposition to them, and there actually appears to be worth on Inexperienced Bay, from how I see it.”

Line going larger?

Brossman thinks the Cowboys-Packers line is just not completed going up.

“It does really feel bizarre seeing Inexperienced Bay as a 5-point house underdog, however I might not be shocked if this strikes extra and goes off nearer to Dallas -6,” Brossman mentioned. “The Packers have confirmed they’ll’t be trusted at house this yr, dropping to the Jets and having misplaced 5 straight total. Conversely, Dallas is rolling offensively and has one of many league’s greatest defenses.

“Final week, the Packers scored a complete of 9 factors in opposition to Detroit’s protection, which ranks thirty first in whole factors given up. Dallas -5 feels just like the secure choose.”

Quick-forward

Can the Cowboys run the desk? To have a look at it from a betting perspective, we requested each Beyers and Brossman to look forward.

Beyers handicapped the remainder of Dallas’ schedule. Over the Cowboys remaining eight video games, he’d have them favored 5 instances. He’s forecasting no less than three extra losses for the Cowboys, maybe 4.

“Assuming [good] well being for everybody on Dallas and their opponents the remainder of the best way, I make the Cowboys a small ‘canine subsequent week in Minneapolis,” Beyers mentioned. “Then a strong favourite versus the Giants, Colts and Texans.”

The Cowboys are at house for all three of these video games.

“Then they’re a small favourite in Jacksonville, near a choose ‘em vs. Philly at house, and a small ‘canine in Nashville, assuming the Titans QB (Ryan Tannehill) is wholesome,” Beyers mentioned.

Within the regular-season finale at Washington, Beyers mentioned the Cowboys could be strong favorites at this level. However remember, Dallas might be resting gamers for the postseason in that Jan. 8 contest.

“I’m pondering 11-6 is the most certainly consequence, with 12-5 nonetheless in play, as nicely,” Beyers mentioned. “However a number of issues can occur between now and early January.”

At FOX Wager, Brossman has the Cowboys favored in six of their remaining eight video games. He makes Dallas a 3-point highway ‘canine at Minnesota in Week 11 and a 1.5-point house pup to the Eagles on Christmas Eve.

Brossman mentioned he thinks Dallas will go 7-2 SU in that stretch to complete a strong 13-4 SU.

“I’ve assumed a win at house versus Philly and a Week 18 loss to Washington, which might very simply be reversed, however will get them to 13-4 nonetheless,” Brossman mentioned.

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Cowboys’ Tremendous Bowl odds

Dallas is a consensus +1300 in odds to win the Tremendous Bowl. That places the Cowboys behind the Buffalo Payments (+300), Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+530) and San Francisco 49ers (+1200). And, relying on the place you guess, the Cowboys may additionally path the Baltimore Ravens (+1400 at FOX Wager).

At FOX Wager, the Cowboys are a bit shorter value at +1000 (guess $10 to win $110 whole), tied for the fourth selection with the 49ers. That’s after Dallas opened Tremendous Bowl futures odds at +1800 and lengthened to +4000 after Dak Prescott suffered a thumb damage within the season opener. The ‘Boys weathered Prescott’s five-game absence, going 4-1 SU and ATS.

“After the Cowboys proved they might win with out elite QB play, they started to shorten week to week,” Brossman mentioned. “The previous 4 weeks have seen their Tremendous Bowl [odds] go from +2000 to +1800 to +1400 to their present +1000 value.”

A Dallas Tremendous Bowl win is sweet behind the FOX Wager counter, with the ebook seeing way more motion on the Payments, Eagles and Chiefs. And Brossman mentioned he thinks the Cowboys might make it attention-grabbing, even when the Eagles win the NFC East and Dallas is a wild card.

“I completely consider the Cowboys could make a run to the Tremendous Bowl, no matter their playoff seed,” Brossman mentioned. “Exterior of Philadelphia, I might put Dallas firmly within the second tier of NFC contenders, alongside San Fran and Minnesota. If Dallas is ready to signal and implement Odell Beckham Jr. into its offense, be careful for the Cowboys this postseason.”

Brossman famous Dallas is the favourite on the prop guess of OBJ’s touchdown spot at +200.

Cowboys counterpoint

On the flip facet, Beyers reiterated that he’s not likely bought on Dallas. Even when the Cowboys end 12-5 or higher within the common season, he’s not seeing a Prescott-led run by way of the postseason.

“I don’t contemplate Dallas to be within the higher echelon of groups, or one that’s able to successful three or most certainly 4 video games in a row in opposition to playoff-caliber foes,” Beyers mentioned. “I might most certainly deal them [at longer odds] than the market in odds to win the NFC and Tremendous Bowl swimming pools if I have been reserving it with my very own cash.”

That is perhaps one thing for optimistic Cowboys bettors to remember, maybe as early as this weekend at Lambeau Discipline.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.


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