This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.
Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.
A reminder to follow our new On the Trail 2024 Instagram account! I’ll be uploading some real-time content from the Republican presidential debate Wednesday.
Here’s more of the Deseret News’ 2024 election coverage:
The Big Idea
Another debate, another dropout
The stage will be smaller at Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate. Tim Scott dropped out of the race in mid-November, after participating in the first three debates but failing to garner much momentum in national polls. Doug Burgum joined him Monday, quietly suspending his campaign.
Much to moderator Megyn Kelly’s chagrin, former President Donald Trump will again skip the debate, opting to host a private fundraiser in Florida instead.
That leaves four participants: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy. DeSantis is coming off a debate last week against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Haley is seeing real momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire. Christie barely snuck onstage, qualifying in the 11th hour Monday. And Ramaswamy is slowly losing steam in polls, but continues to hang around.
What to watch from each participant:
DeSantis. The Florida governor entered the race as the presumed runner-up behind Trump. In recent months, though, he’s seen his campaign hemorrhage enthusiasm. His top donors backed off. His super PAC fell into administrative shambles. In the polls, what was once a two-man race between Trump and DeSantis is now a 40-percentage-point differential; in New Hampshire, DeSantis has sunk to fifth place.
In Iowa, though, DeSantis is seeing a few bursts of hope. He secured an endorsement from Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats. Trump still has a lead in Iowa that pushes 30 percentage points, but DeSantis — fresh off completing his 99-county Iowa tour — is now boldly declaring he will win the state. In order to do that, though, he will need to take on Trump head-on, and attack him on something beyond just his reluctance to debate.
Which DeSantis will show up on Wednesday — the one that thinks he can beat Trump in Iowa, or the one that’s polling behind Christie in New Hampshire?
Haley. It’s been a productive month for Haley, who is seeing a big surge in support from establishment Republicans desperate for a post-Trump GOP. (Our more detailed analysis on this is here.) The latest flash of life is this report from The Dispatch, suggesting that Haley donors are trying to convince Christie’s to come onboard.
All eyes are on Haley this week. “This is gonna be the hardest debate yet for her. Every candidate is going to be attacking her,” a 2016 campaign veteran told The Messenger. If that’s the case, Haley’s challenge is to not get bogged down by DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and instead make her case why she’s a better option than Trump. This isn’t a Haley-versus-the-field contest; if any challenger wants to win the primary, it’s them-versus-Trump. She’ll need to enunciate that clearly Wednesday.
Ramaswamy. It seems Ramaswamy’s idyllic summer is over, where he saw a surprise surge of support and even rose to No. 2 in some national polls. Things are less exciting now. His national political director jumped ship last week; while Haley is polling neck-and-neck nationally with DeSantis, Ramaswamy is hovering around 5%.
Through it all, Ramaswamy has been adamant that he’s running to win, and he has no desire to be Trump’s vice president. However, a source told The Atlantic that if Trump wins, Ramaswamy would be open to being ambassador to the United Nations — he’s “a good talker,” the source said.
To Ramaswamy’s luck, Trump’s ex-U.N. ambassador, Haley, will be on the debate stage Wednesday night. Haley can’t seem to stand Ramaswamy, and has said in past debates that he has “no foreign policy experience, and it shows.” But Ramaswamy, if U.N. ambassador is really on his radar, can use these debates as an audition. Watch for his foreign policy statements and Haley attacks — they’ll probably be wrapped in one.
What I’m reading …
What happens to America if Trump wins? That’s the central question addressed by the latest edition of The Atlantic. McKay Coppins focuses on Trump’s potential efforts to fill the federal government with his allies. “The notion of the so-called independence of the Department of Justice needs to be consigned to the ash heap of history,” one ex-Trump official told him — and another floated the possibility of Sen. Mike Lee as the next U.S. attorney general. Loyalists, Lapdogs and Cronies (McKay Coppins, The Atlantic)
Biden’s economic message, dubbed ‘Bidenomics,’ has received a lukewarm reception from voters. The president’s reelection campaign is subsequently shifting its messaging away from the economy to health care — starting by rehashing Biden’s successes in lowering prescription drug costs. A new TV ad got the ball rolling last week; expect the messaging to continue. Biden’s prescription for 2024 turnaround will include major health care focus (Edward-Isaac Dovere, Arlette Saenz and Tami Luhby, CNN)
Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign has been losing steam for weeks now. Rumors that he’s hoping for the VP slot or an ambassadorship are circling. And a big punch to the gut: Ramaswamy’s national political director called it quits last week, accepting a position on the Trump campaign. Top Ramaswamy Aide Resigns to Start Working for the Trump Campaign (Anjali Huynh, The New York Times)
Have a question for next week’s mailbag? Drop me a line at [email protected], or reply to this email.
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.