Welcome to Wednesday NBA Prop-A-Shot, where we unveil our favorite prop bets of the night before following all of the action live. On tap tonight, we have a tidy six-game slate featuring Kevin Durant, Scottie Barnes, Luka Doncic, and much more. Here’s how our Prop-a-Shot series works:
Before the first games tip, we share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the night. During the live window, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market. At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines or surprising developments in the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the course of the night. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered!
Remember to check back throughout the evening for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude. Good luck, have fun, and may the odds be forever in your favor!
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Tyrese Maxey points
UPDATE (7:18 p.m.) — Maxey has 14 at the break, a hell of a bounce-back after a slow start to the game. This is why he’s an All-Star. Nick Nurse likely told his star guard after his second foul that he should not — under any circumstances — be committing any fouls. We’re still not ashamed of our UNDER hedge. Orlando plays so tough at home, and Jalen Suggs is about as pesky a backcourt defender as the NBA has in this day and age. 52-46 Philly at intermission — dare we say there’s value in the OVER (211.5)? Both these squads scored 64 second-half points in their last game.
UPDATE (7:18) — Maxey just subbed out with two fouls before 1:30 before the halfway point of the first quarter. That’s not a great sign. We might consider live betting his UNDER now while it’s still in the high 20s.
UPDATE (6:30) — With a plethora of betting action on Maxey’s OVER, it moved from 29.5 up to 30.5 with modest juice. The value has diminished from this OVER, so we understand why you would pass.
With Joel Embiid set to miss his second consecutive game due to an ankle injury, we like Maxey to bounce back from his horrid Christmas Day performance against the Heat. The star point guard scored just 12 points while shooting 4-of-20 from the field and 1-of-8 from three-point land, one of the worst games of his entire basketball life.
Poor shooting nights have been few and far between for the Sixers’ breakout, who averages a hair under 26 points per game with shooting splits of 45.8/39.1/88.7. He’s as deserving of a spot on the Eastern All-Star team as any lead guard not named Tyrese Haliburton. We think he will prove that tonight against a surging Magic squad that has won 13 of its past 19 games.
Devil’s advocates will suggest Maxey needs JoJo to succeed. That’s an argument for casuals, though, and one that’s easily debunked by Maxey’s 33-point effort in New Orleans the last time he played without Embiid in late November. He also averaged 29.3 PPG in the final three games he played without JoJo last season — and that was when Philly still had James Harden.
Others will point to Orlando’s impressive defensive metrics this season. But the Magic have been burned by a plethora of guards over the past three weeks — Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Tyler Herro, Jaylen Brown, Darius Garland, and Donovan Mitchell, to name a half-dozen — should ease your mind about the second concern.
Jamahl Mosley’s squad is not winning because of perimeter defense — it’s winning despite its perimeter defense. Orlando lets ball-dominant guards go off but focuses on containing the rest of opponents’ lineups. And it’s not always very pretty — the Magic have committed the fourth-most fouls and the ninth-most turnovers in the NBA. Philly might not win this game — we like the more complete and confident Magic to cover the -2.5 at home — but Maxey won’t be the reason the Sixers lose.
Giannis Antetokounmpo points
UPDATE (8:40 p.m.): Approaching halftime, the Bucks have been hovering around a 10-point lead over the Nets. Jacque Vaughn’s rotations have been… well… interesting. The Brooklyn head coach is clearly trying to fight fire with fire by deploying multiple bigs (Day’Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Trendon Watford, even Harry Giles!) against Milwaukee’s massive front court. The Bucks got a little sloppy toward the end of the first half — they committed multiple turnovers and dumb fouls, didn’t box out, etc. — with Milwaukee up 66-58 at halftime, we would consider betting the favorites to cover the -10.5. The Bucks are the second-best second-half team in the NBA.
This year has been wild in terms of offense, to the point that we’re crushing OVER 31.5-point player props at an alarming rate. We have hit on every Giannis OVER at this level this season, and we don’t expect the good times to stop rolling this evening.
What can we say about the Greek Freak you don’t already know? He has scored 32 points in 16 of the 29 games he has played this season. In the 22 games since his 54-point game against Indiana on Nov. 9, he has averaged 32.8 PPG. Oh, and he’s shooting 60.7 percent from the floor since November 1.
Don’t worry about Milwaukee being on the road — Giannis had 36 points on 15-of-27 shooting the last time the Bucks visited the Nets (11/6), and that was despite going 1-of-7 from three-point land. The two-time MVP hasn’t taken more than three triples in any other game this season, a strategy that has paid off well for Adrian Griffin’s 22-8 Bucks. Antetokounmpo’s two-point field-goal percentage: 63.9.
Pound the OVER for the red-hot Giannis against a Nets squad that has suffered some ‘failure to launch’ moments over the past couple weeks. Brooklyn has dropped five of its past seven, only managing victories over the hapless Pistons during that stretch. Brooklyn’s five-game losing streak saw Jacque Vaughn’s squad get outscored 149-123 in first quarters. For that reason, we’re also betting the Bucks to win the first quarter and the game (parlay those, if possible!).
Scottie Barnes double-double
Best bet: Yes (-135) (-150) Raptors at Wizards — 7:00 p.m. (NBA TV, Monumental Sports Network)
UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): The Raptors destroyed the Wizards 132-102, and Barnes finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists. We cashed on the Barnes double-double prop (we got in early at -135) as well as the Raptors -9.5 at halftime (-110). Schwing!
UPDATE (8:00 p.m.): Toronto is rolling right now and Washington can’t get out of its own way. The Wiz are turning the ball over left and right and some players aren’t even running back in transition after giveaways. In what seemed like a flash, the Raptors moved from up six to up 11. Washington’s Corey Kispert hit a buzzer-beater to make it 59-50 at the break, though. We would be all over Toronto -9.5 at halftime. The Raps are going to break the Wizards in the second half. Oh, and Barnes has 13/6/4, so we’re well on our way to a double-double.
UPDATE (6:45): The juice on Barnes’ double-double jumped to -150, but we’re still betting it. This is a no-brainer — the man is on a torrid pace and stat-padding should help his chances at making his first All-Star Game.
Barnes has been a force for the Raptors this season, easily the most overlooked young star in the NBA today. Over the past two weeks, the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year has averaged over 24 points and 10 rebounds per game. And he’s getting better as the season progresses — in just the past four games, Barnes has averaged 24 points, 12 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 2.3 blocks while shooting 50 percent from the field, 36.4 from three, and 94.7 percent from the line.
The Wizards have been the worst defense in the Association this season, in terms of points allowed and defensive rating. They also rank dead-last in rebounds, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds allowed, and total rebounds allowed per game. Washington also allows a league-high 30.1 assists per game, so a double-double almost seems like too easy a goal for Scottie this evening. Hell, the dude might put up 30/20/10 triple-double!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points
UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): SGA is a bad, bad man. The MVP candidate has 19 points at halftime, with his squad all over New York 69-60. We’re right on track with Shai’s OVER, OKC -3.5, and we could easily hit the Thunder 1-6 prop if Jalen Brunson and the Knicks make a little second-half run.
SGA is quietly putting on another MVP-level season for the Thunder, averaging 30.8 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game while maintaining shooting splits of 53.5/30.7/91.2. If the dude can raise his three-point shooting to 35-38 percent at any point in his career, he’s going to break the game of basketball.
We can’t imagine betting against Gilgeous-Alexander in what should be a close game against the 17-12 Knicks. The superstar point guard averaged 33.5 points per game in two games against New York last season, and the Knicks will be even more vulnerable to SGA’s penetrating drives now that stud defender Mitch Robinson suffered a season-ending ankle injury three weeks ago.
OKC has won seven of its past 10 games and sits 19-9 on the season, and we don’t expect SGA or the surging squad around him to slow down anytime soon. In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander’s OVER, we’re also betting the Thunder -3.5 and we might even consider betting them at +360 to win by 1-6 points. Why bet such a specific scoring margin prop? The value! OKC has a +4.8 scoring margin over its past five home games, and +360 yields a far better payout than OKC -3.5 at -105.
Kevin Durant points
UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): The Suns are clobbering the Rockets 73-55, with former Rocket Eric Gordon lighting it up from outside. KD is doing it all — blocking shots, dishing out 10 assists, grabbing steals — but he hasn’t even needed to score. This game is a runaway. We should have jumped all over Phoenix as soon as Ime Udoka announced Dillon Brooks out.
UPDATE (6:50 p.m.): KD’s points total decreased to 27.5 but the odds shifted from a light -110 to a heavy -145. Might not be worth your while to take on so much juice against a good defensive squad.
The Suns have hit the skids, dropping three games in a row and nine of their past 12. At such times of organizational duress, it’s up to the superstars to get their team out of the funk. We like KD to do just that, as the superstar swingman had 41 points on the heels of Phoenix’s last three-game losing streak earlier in the season.
Houston has surprised everyone with its defensive prowess under first-year Rockets head coach Ime Udoka. However, H-Town doesn’t have anybody who can keep Durant from rocket-launching into a scoring explosion. Don’t say Dillon Brooks, either — KD averaged 31.5 PPG on 63.9 percent shooting against Brooks and the Grizzlies last season. And while he obviously has respect for DBrooks, he also has the ability to break him down on the floor.
Another scoring over/under we like in this game is Jusuf Nurkić OVER 12.5 points. As good as Rockets center Alperen Şengün has been this season, he remains a bit of a defensive liability against stronger, more physical centers. And with Drew Eubanks struggling during Nurk’s recent two-game absence due to personal reasons, we would be shocked if the Suns’ starting center sees fewer than 30 minutes in his return against the feisty Rockets. Over the past five games in which Nurk has played 30-plus minutes, the big man has averaged 15.6 PPG.
Luka Doncic assists
Dončić can’t possibly be human. What this man has done since Mavs teammate Kyrie Irving got hurt a few weeks ago has been spellbinding. It’s been a December to remember, for sure — he’s averaging 37.3 points, 11.6 assists, and 9.2 rebounds during the month and he just burned the Suns for 50 points and 15 assists on Christmas.
The 50-point effort pushed Luka Legend past 10,000 career points, making him the fastest player in NBA history to reach that career threshold. He also became just the second player in history to record 50 points and 15 assists in an NBA game, joining James Harden in that exclusive club.
We can’t bet the Matador’s scoring OVER, because 36.5 points is just an absurd bar to set. We’re also not betting his UNDER, because superstars’ scoring unders have become more volatile than favorites on Monday Night Football. However, we love the OVER on Luka’s 10.5 assists.
Dončić is obviously going to attract a ton of defensive attention from Cleveland this evening, and we like this game to be relatively close. In the past two Mavs games decided by six points or fewer, the Don has averaged 17.5 assists per game. Smash the OVER on Luka’s dime total like he just smashed Joel Embiid’s record for fastest to 10,000 points.
Be sure to check back in this evening, as we will be updating the live blog throughout the night and providing you with betting updates, recommended live betting tips and picks, and a follow-up on all of our action from the Wednesday night slate. Good luck, happy holidays, and enjoy what should be a fun evening of NBA hoops!