You may have heard this before, but sports betting can be a bit of a rollercoaster. Some weeks you’re up big, other weeks you bottom out. Even sharps have bad weeks, and plenty of professional bettors had rough rides in Week 4 of the NFL season. That includes Sporting News’ expert panel of SuperDraft player prop bettors — we got smoked last week! But it’s like a bad beat in poker — all we can do is scrap the L from our memory banks, dust ourselves off, play the next hand the right way, and rebound.
If sweeping a player prop parlay each week was easy, everyone would be making millions off this market and fantastic sites like SuperDraft would cease to exist. Let’s face it: it’s hard work making money on props, especially when you must win multiple in order to cash. But we’ve done it each week of the season before last week, so we’re going back to the drawing board with confidence that we can make our money back this weekend.
Every Friday, my SN Bets colleagues and I unveil a dozen or so of our favorite SuperDraft player props from the NFL’s Sunday slate. The concept for the column is simple: the four of us each pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the wagers that yield the most value.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago, SN Bets expert Vinnie Iyer and yours truly combined to go 5-2 and moved up to 14-5 on the season. After Week 4 concluded, our two elder statesmen of the panel sit just 16-9. Take a look at the updated standings after Week 4 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
Expert
Week 4
Overall
Sloan Piva
1-2
10-3
Vinnie Iyer
1-2
6-6
Nick Brinkerhoff
0-3
4-8
Nick Musial
1-2
3-9
Yours truly suffered the first losing week of the season, thanks to James Cook doing all his damage through the air and Mike Evans getting a rib injury midway through the Bucs-Saints game. Bah! Still, a 10-3 record on the season feels pretty good, and I’m not changing a thing about my approach heading into Week 4. Vinnie got burned by the mountain of suck that Daniel Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson have been, and the Nicks have plummeted to a 7-17 record. Woof! No place to go but up, Brinks and Muse — we have the utmost confidence you can dig yourself out of this ditch!
Our panel of experts is much better than our record suggests. So, let’s move forward, lock in some winners, and get back on the right track. If you’re not familiar with SuperDraft, there has never been a better time to jump in. SD’s Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably guess, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That’s where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, pitches our favorite props, and lets you do the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we’ll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let’s get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend’s NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 5!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 5: Our experts’ favorite SuperDraft bets
James Conner, RB, and Josh Dobbs, QB, Cardinals vs. Bengals — Conner OVER 60.5 rushing yards and Dobbs OVER 20.5 completions (Sloan Piva)
How about two for the price of one!? The Bengals are a complete train wreck, with Joe Burrow clearly not right and Tee Higgins most likely missing at least this game with a fractured rib. The Titans demolished Cincy 27-3 last week, and this Cardinals team has looked vastly better than Tennessee through one month of play. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing have instilled new hope in the desert, with a huge Week 3 win over Dallas and a respectable showing against the 49ers last week.
That 49ers tilt marked the first game in which Conner failed to notch 62 rushing yards — he finished with 52 on just 11 carries. But that’s the most rushing yards San Francisco has allowed to a back all season, tied with Kyren Williams (who needed 14 carries to get there in Week 2). Conner amassed 262 rushing yards across Arizona’s first three games, a stretch that included the strong front-sevens of the Cowboys and Commanders. He will demolish this OVER against Cincinnati, which has surrendered 445 ground yards on just 91 carries (111.3 per game, 4.9 per rush).
As for Dobbs, people are sleeping on this kid. He has honestly looked better than his counterpart in this game, Joe Burrow, and by a country mile. He just completed 28-of-41 passes for 265 yards and two TDs. He has a completion rate of 70.7 and zero interceptions across four games. His athleticism helps keep plays alive, and his legs keep drives alive. The dude has completed 21 passes in three of four games, and we think this one will be close (the Bengals are -3 on BetMGM). Bet Dobbs to hit this OVER with ease, and prepare for the ‘QB controversy’ narrative once Kyler Murray comes off the PUP list.
MORE WEEK 5 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills vs. Jaguars in London — UNDER 83.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Tyson Campbell has arguably become the best shutdown cornerback in the game. Diggs comes into this game red-hot and Josh Allen has been in MVP form, but Buffalo’s top wideout should cool off here under tight coverage from an underrated Jaguars pass defense. This is also a high number to hit, as it feels more like Diggs will “settle” for around 60 yards receiving with a fair shot to score.
Brett Maher, K, Rams vs. Eagles — OVER 6.5 kicking points (Nick Brinkerhoff)
How about some love for the kickers as we head into Week 5? It’s a good place to start, considering yours truly took a swift kick in the you-know-what in Week 4. The good news is that it’s only up from here and Maher is primed to deliver like the Amazon driver that’s dropping off your Oreos only a few hours after ordering. Modern technology sure is something.
If you’re new to the wonderful world of kicking props, here’s how it goes: Each field goal is worth three points. An extra point is exactly that: one additional point. So, our most realistic path to victory is two field goals and an extra point. Maher’s 2023 season has seen him swing the leg much more than the L.A. Angels have flipped their bats since the postseason began (sports crossover!).
Maher has gone 12-for-16 on field goals, hitting three in each game. Three gets us into the green, even if Sean McVay’s face turns red with poor execution continuing in the red zone. The Eagles allow the fewest kicking points to opposing teams on average, but we’ll trust McVay and a talented Rams offense to move the ball enough for Maher to kick us right to the bank.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings vs. Chiefs — UNDER 53.5 rushing yards (Nick Musial)
Since his rough showing against the Eagles on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 2, Mattison has averaged 94 rushing yards per game. That said, we think Mattison posts a rushing output similar to his efforts in Week 1 and 2, going UNDER his yardage prop of 53.5.
The Vikings still rank as one of the most pass-heavy teams on early downs (61.1 percent; fourth in NFL) — and in a game that finds Minnesota priced as five-point home underdogs on BetMGM, chances are they’ll be playing from behind in the second half. A pass-heavy script limits Mattison’s rushing opportunities and lands him UNDER this total.
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts vs. Titans — UNDER 47.5 rushing yards (Piva)
The recipe for success against the Titans is throwing the ball, so look for Richardson to spend most of this game in the pocket. Everyone will be tempted to smash the OVER here after the rookie QB’s 56-yard rushing effort against the Rams last week, but Tennessee has been dominant against the run all year.
Through four games, RBs have totaled just 227 yards against the Titans (56.8 per game) and QBs have amassed just 25 (6.3 per game)! With the Titans likely stacking the box to contain the recently-returned Jonathan Taylor, Richardson and Michael Pittman will feast like the Lost Boys in Hook this weekend — through the air, not on the ground.
Michael Pittman Jr. WR, Colts vs. Titans — OVER 58.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Like Sloan just mentioned, the Titans’ secondary is awful. Pittman did next to nothing last week against a much better Rams pass defense. He’s the squeaky wheel of the week and will get the grease from his sizzling-hot rookie QB. Pittman can still “settle” for 60 yards and give you this number easily, maybe by halftime.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets @ Broncos — OVER 58.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
When the Broncos are on the field, we target the other team. Denver didn’t give up 70 points in a game as a fluke, the same way it’s not a coincidence that Justin Fields had arguably his best game as a pro in Week 3 (although after Thursday night, it’s safe to say Fields is actually good now). The Broncos’ defense does a disservice to the word “bad,” and now they get a motivated Jets team led by a confident Zach Wilson.
After going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs last Sunday night, Gang Green gets the perfect spot to keep the good vibes going. Garrett Wilson was targeted 14 times last week, hauling in nine receptions for just 60 yards. But it’s the targets that have us looking to the over here. That’s Davante Adams-like usage that offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett dialed up in Week 4. In a game that has the Jets aiming for revenge on Sean Payton, expect No. 17 to see the ball thrown his way plenty as New York digs out of its 1-3 hole.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys at 49ers — OVER 37.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Cooks has yet to reach 30-plus receiving yards in his first three games as a Cowboy, but we think he has his best game yet this Sunday night. CeeDee Lamb’s likely to see plenty of Isaiah Oliver — and potentially Charvarius Ward in the slot — which opens up opportunities for Cooks on the outside.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs at Vikings — OVER 76.5 receiving yards (Piva)
The Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift love story has garnered 10 times more hype than the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs have this season, but this should be the week that Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and company retake the narrative.
The Vikings’ defense has been wretched as usual, allowing 68 first downs over the past three weeks and surrendering 445 passing yards the last time they faced a strong passing offense (Week 3 vs. the Chargers). Minnesota has also allowed the sixth-most yards to pass-catchers lined up in the slot — where Kelce feasts — and the last above-average tight end Kevin O’Connell’s squad ‘s squad faced, Dallas Goedert, caught 6-of-7 targets.
Kelce has 17 catches and multiple TDs across his three games this season, but he has yet to eclipse 70 receiving yards in a game this season. We have him going for closer to 100 than 77 this Sunday, and cruising into the Minneapolis sunset with his 750 million-dollar lady.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions vs. Panthers — OVER 70.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
Montgomery has been fully healthy for three games now. He has exceeded this rushing total in all of them, and Detroit also emerged victorious in all three. The Lions are heavily favored at home against the Panthers (-10 on BetMGM), who stink against the run and will be steamrolled. It will be more Cat Scratch Fever for Monty, as he remains a Motor City Madman rushing for another century mark.
Drake London, WR, Falcons vs. Texans — UNDER 42.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Betting Falcons props every week might be enough evidence that someone needs professional help, which might be the case if London hands us another losing ticket this weekend. We’ve detailed our ongoing hatred for Arthur Smith, and the coach is getting the best of us. But that’s because we’ve been playing right into his hands, doing the same thing and expecting different results. We might be insane anyway for going back to the ATL — but Desmond Ridder can hardly throw a fit, let alone a football.
As Jonnu Smith continues to draw targets like it’s 2019, we look at London and see a receiver that has 126 yards through four weeks, besting this 42.5 number just once. An average of 31.5 yards isn’t getting the job done — and that will continue against the surprising Texans, who hold opposing offenses to the ninth-fewest passing yards per game. This is a Houston defense that also ranks fourth in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. Maybe it’s been trending this way for a while, but kudos to you, Arthur! You finally got us to take an under. Enjoy the Mack Hollins Show.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders vs. Packers — OVER 65.5 rushing yards (Musial)
The reigning rushing leader has endured a slow start to his ‘23 campaign (166 yards, 2.6 yards per carry), which could have something to do with his offseason holdout impacting his early-season struggles. If there’s a time to buy low on Jacobs, Week 5 is it. Green Bay’s rush defense ranks 27th in rush EPA (0.010 EPA) and hasn’t been great down to down, either (23rd in rush success rate; 42.9%). With Monday night’s game projected as a one-score game, a 20-plus carry night isn’t out of the question.