Oregon is No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but the Ducks are a popular pick to crash the College Football Playoff field.
No. 5 Oregon takes on No. 3 Washington in the Pac-12 championship game on Fox on Friday. The Ducks have a chance to avenge a 36-33 loss to the Huskies on Oct. 14. It’s arguably the best of the five Power 5 championship games this weekend:
Pac-12: No. 3 Washington vs. No. 5 Oregon (Friday 8 p.m., FOX) Big 12: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC) SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)ACC: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 14 Louisville (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. vs. No. 16 Iowa (Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX)
A victory there would theoretically slide Oregon into the top four given that Washington is one of the four remaining unbeaten teams, but some one-loss teams are looming. No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Alabama also are playing for conference championships, and that could threaten the Ducks’ chances.
Will second-year coach Dan Lanning get Oregon in the College Football Playoff?
MORE: CFP scenarios, from chalk to chaos
Can Oregon still make College Football Playoff?
Oregon is one of eight Power 5 teams with one loss or less heading into conference championship weekend. No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff. A loss to Washington would knock Oregon down to a New Year’s Day Six berth.
A look at those teams:
RANK TEAM RECORD 1 Georgia 12-0 2 Michigan 12-0 3 Washington 12-0 4 Florida State 12-0 5 Oregon 11-1 6 Ohio State 11-1 7 Texas 11-1 8 Alabama 11-1
Oregon also is a 9.5-point favorite against Washington, which suggests the Ducks should win the Pac-12 championship game Friday. In that regular-season loss, Lanning opted to go for it on three fourth downs, and the Ducks failed to convert on all three tries. It should be a Heisman Trophy-caliber showdown between Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., and if the Ducks win, then they would likely get into the top four.
There will still be arguments, however. A few debates that Oregon will have to win. Here is the rooting guide for Oregon this weekend.
Oklahoma State beats Texas in Big 12 championship game
This gives the Longhorns two losses. Oregon vs. Texas might eventually become the defining debate for the committee if all the favorites win this weekend.
MORE: Bowl projections | Championship games picks
Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game
This knocks the Crimson Tide out and could set up a matchup between the Bulldogs and Ducks in the CFP semifinals. Georgia beat Oregon 49-3 in the 2022 season opener.
Iowa beats Michigan in Big Ten championship
The result does not have much bearing, honestly, and the Ducks likely would bypass the Wolverines if Michigan were somehow to lose to the Hawkeyes.
Louisville beats Florida State in ACC championship
Every one-loss team is rooting for this to happen.
Three Oregon College Football Playoff debates
If the above scenario unfolds, then the Ducks would be in the CFP. Even if Michigan wins, Oregon would be in good shape here:
Now, depending on how the other games shake out these potential head-to-head arguments could happen.
Oregon (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)
If all five favored teams win this weekend, then Georgia and Michigan will be locks. The committee would have to choose two among Florida State, Oregon and Texas. The Seminoles likely would get the No. 3 seed in that event based on an unbeaten record. Oregon could jump Florida State in the seeding, however. Keep in mind in 2014, Oregon had one loss and the Seminoles were unbeaten before they met in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (12-1) vs. Texas (12-1)
Same scenario, and the last debate is Oregon vs. Texas. The Longhorns would have one loss and a conference championship, too, but it likely would have benefitted Texas more to have Oklahoma in their conference championship game. Oregon gets a chance to correct their regular-season mistake. The Longhorns likely lose this head-to-head argument, if it’s for the last spot.
Oregon (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)
If Alabama wins the SEC championship, then would it leap-frog Oregon in the seeding? That could happen, but in that scenario, two unbeaten teams – Georgia and Washington – would be off the board. The Crimson Tide still have to win an argument with Texas. Oregon does not have to do that right now. In the scenarios where the Crimson Tide win, we have them seeded behind the Ducks in the CFP.
Oregon strength of schedule
According to ESPN, Oregon ranks No. 3 in the Football Power Index. Oregon’s strength of schedule is at No. 62. The Ducks do have victories against two ranked opponents, but this would be their first win against a top-10 team.
Oregon strength of record
According to ESPN, the Ducks rank No. 9 in strength of record. That is three spots behind Texas (No. 6) and Alabama (No. 7), but not far enough that Oregon would lose those arguments if they can win the Pac-12 championship game.
Will Oregon make the CFP?
The Ducks have a chance to break the Pac-12’s playoff drought, which extends back to 2016. This is the final season of the Pac-12, and there might be some tense moments if Texas and Alabama win this weekend. A Florida State loss wouldn’t hurt either. It starts with a victory against Washington, however. Oregon ranks second in the FBS in scoring offense (45.2 ppg.) and seventh in scoring defense (15.9 ppg.). There is a reason this is the “it” team heading into conference championship weekend.