The Japan flag is juxtaposed against a Japanese yen bank note.
Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Some reprieve
U.S. stocks kicked off the final week of September by snapping a four-day losing streak Monday — even as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.542%, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 4,337.44. The Nasdaq Composite closed higher by 0.45% at 13,271.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 43.04 points, or 0.13%, to 34,006.88.
Changes in the Bezos empire
Blue Origin’s chief executive Bob Smith will be replaced by outgoing Amazon executive Dave Limp, according to notes to Blue Origin staff written by Smith and Bezos that were obtained by CNBC. Smith is retiring effective Dec. 4 and will remain with the company until Jan. 2 for the CEO transition.
AI race
Amazon said Monday it will invest up to $4 billion in artificial intelligence firm Anthropic and take a minority ownership position in the company, as Amazon looks to keep pace with rivals such as Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s ChatGPT can now “see, hear and speak,” or, at least, understand spoken words, respond with a synthetic voice and process images, the company announced Monday.
China outbound rush
Outbound travel from China is surging ahead of the first “Golden Week” holiday period — an annual weeklong period marking China’s National Day that starts Oct. 1 this year — since the country has allowed international travel to resume and even as China’s economic growth has slowed. Bookings for popular foreign destinations such as Singapore, Australia and Thailand have increased 20 times compared to the same holiday period last year, travel provider Trip.com said in a press release Monday.
Coy launch
Huawei kept mum on any details about its new phone or reported advanced chip breakthrough at a high-profile launch event Monday. Instead, the company teased two new electric cars — its first sedan and a high-end SUV — and launched new wireless earbuds, among other products. Huawei partners with an auto manufacturer to sell cars under the Aito brand.
[PRO] How to play this rate hike
The latest rise in U.S. interest rates is different from similar moves earlier this year, and that should change which stocks outperform, according to Goldman Sachs. Higher rates should hurt growth stocks more now that some of the excitement around artificial intelligence and a resilient U.S. economy have cooled, David Kostin, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients over the weekend.
The bottom line
Does Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have a communication issue?
Or, are investors just too eager in parsing for any hints the BOJ is finally doing away with its ultra loose monetary policy that they become unwitting victims of confirmation bias?
At the end of its September policy meeting Friday, the Japanese central bank maintained its ultra-loose policy and left rates unchanged, mindful of the “extremely high uncertainties” on the growth outlook domestically and globally.
For some market watchers, this ran against the spirit of what Ueda appeared to be alluding when he told Yomiuri Shimbun in an interview published Sept. 9 that the BOJ could have sufficient data by the end of this year to determine when it could end negative rates.
Many economists brought forward their forecasts for a quicker exit from the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy to sometime in the first half of 2024 after that interview.
Then on Monday, Ueda appeared to further walk back on his Yomiuri Shimbun comments at a meeting with business leaders in Osaka, where he said the “sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability target of 2%, accompanied by wage increases, has not yet come in sight.”
Ueda is a working economics professor with a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he studied under Stanley Fischer. Is his professorial tendency to think aloud and entertain various scenarios getting in the way of clearer market communication?
“It wasn’t as if any time frame for achieving our price target had changed. I thought that by ruling out the possibility completely would bind the discussion of upcoming policy-setting meetings,” Ueda said Friday at a press conference following the release of the BOJ policy statement, in a Reuters translation of his comments.
To be fair, market expectations for further tightening were already entrenched when the BOJ loosened its yield curve control at its July policy meeting, allowing longer term rates to move more in tandem with rising inflation. It was Ueda’s first policy change since assuming office in April. After all, core inflation has exceeded the central bank’s stated 2% target for 17 consecutive months now.
The BOJ will meet again in October and December this year. Reading the policy tea leaves is now almost a competitive sport.