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When a suicide bombing rocked a political gathering in northwest Pakistan over the weekend, suspicion instantly fell upon the Pakistani Taliban group, whose rising footprint and mounting assaults have alarmed safety officers within the nation.
However on Monday, the smaller Islamic State group often known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, or ISKP, claimed accountability for the assault, which killed at the least 46 folks at a political conference within the northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The assault underscored the rival safety challenges that Pakistan is going through and the fears that the 2 rival militant teams could also be engaged in a cycle of violence as they compete for consideration and followers.
There’s a rising concern that Pakistan’s “terrorism menace has fallen below the radar and that it has not been prioritized by the federal government,” mentioned Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute on the Wilson Middle.
“For Pakistani policymakers, the sobering actuality is that they face not solely an intensifying terrorist menace” but in addition one “that’s multifaceted,” he mentioned. He added that Pakistan has to determine not solely “easy methods to beat again” the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP — a militant group that endorses the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan however operates individually — but in addition easy methods to confront the rising menace posed by ISKP.
Not less than 40 killed in blast at Pakistan political conference
Whereas Pakistani officers say they’re nonetheless investigating who was behind Sunday’s blast, analysts mentioned the goal of the assault — Pakistan’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam celebration, or JUI, which is linked to the Afghan Taliban — makes the Islamic State group the more than likely perpetrator.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban management has lately publicized raids in opposition to alleged Islamic State hideouts, and in April, U.S. officers mentioned the Taliban coordinated the killing of the suspected ISKP mastermind behind a suicide bombing throughout america’ pullout from Afghanistan in 2021. However U.S. intelligence findings leaked on the Discord messaging platform and obtained by The Washington Put up earlier this 12 months counsel that Afghanistan has turn into a big coordination website for the Islamic State because the U.S. pullout.
After the withdrawal, ISKP might have obtained weapons left behind by Western militaries. The group may additionally have been not directly galvanized by the Taliban raids on their Afghan hideouts and the rising competitors with the TTP in Pakistan, analysts mentioned.
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The Islamic State group is “being undermined by the Taliban authorities, however on the identical time there may be an added competitors,” mentioned Asfandyar Mir, a Pakistan-focused researcher on the U.S. Institute of Peace, cautioning that “optimism about ISIS dropping momentum is fake.”
Regional Islamic State shops now frequently declare that their group is the true face of Islamist militancy, arguing that the Taliban has betrayed its supporters by placing offers with america within the lead-up to the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The Islamic State has to date targeted totally on placing Taliban targets in Afghanistan, together with the Taliban-run International Ministry in Kabul. However ISKP is more and more aiming at Taliban allies and supporters overseas, together with the JUI celebration and the Pakistani Taliban.
Over the previous decade, a harsh army crackdown had routed the Pakistani Taliban’s fighters and quashed its affect. However the Taliban takeover in neighboring Afghanistan gave a lift to the Pakistani motion, offering political help and — in keeping with officers in Islamabad — essential protected haven.
After peace talks between the Pakistani authorities and the Pakistani Taliban collapsed in November, the militant group made substantial inroads into Pakistani tribal areas this 12 months by following the mannequin of the Afghan Taliban, which named shadow governors and produced high-quality propaganda materials earlier than the 2021 takeover.
The Pakistani Taliban has vowed to chorus from attacking civilians, arguing that it’s at warfare with the Pakistani authorities and never its folks, however the smaller Islamic State group has proven no such reluctance. Sunday’s bombing focusing on the JUI celebration, a right-wing political and non secular celebration led by hard-line cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman, got here after the Islamic State group had already killed a number of clerics related to the JUI, mentioned Ashraf Ali, a Pakistani safety analyst.
However the scale and timing of Sunday’s blast shocked the Pakistani institution. Pakistan’s governing coalition lately agreed to dissolve Parliament within the coming weeks, which might set off a basic election earlier than the tip of the 12 months. The JUI is a part of the ruling coalition, and JUI volunteers and celebration officers have been within the midst of preparations for the election when the blast struck their conference on Sunday.
Analysts fear that an election marketing campaign may gasoline rival efforts by the TTP, the native Islamic State department and different teams to disrupt the upcoming vote, as every of them makes an attempt to attract consideration and enhance its footprint.
“If ISIS decides to pursue this logic on this upcoming election season in Pakistan, then issues can get very ugly,” Mir mentioned.
Shaiq Hussain in Islamabad and Haq Nawaz Khan in Peshawar, Pakistan, contributed to this report.
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