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BRUSSELS — As Israeli forces push into the Gaza Strip and the United Nations warns of humanitarian catastrophe for civilians there, some European politicians appear focused on ensuring that those who survive and manage to leave don’t come to Europe.
In the weeks since Hamas’s attack on Israel, Europe has been divided on how to respond and worried about how the conflict might spill over. Countries across the continent have reported an increase in antisemitic incidents, as well a rise in anti-Arab hate speech and hate crimes. Two terrorist attacks — one in France, one in Belgium — have not been directly linked to the crisis but have nonetheless frayed nerves.
With division and fear in the air, far-right voices have seized the moment to play up the possibility of mass displacement from the Middle East and argue that Europe needs to tighten its borders ahead of a potential spike in asylum seekers.
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At a European Union summit in Brussels last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned, without citing specific evidence, that instability in Israel and Egypt would “immediately” send people fleeing to Europe. He also sought to link all migration to terrorism, saying “those who support migration also support terrorism.”
Though some E.U. leaders and officials bristle at Orban’s tone, Hungary is not a total outlier. Politicians from Poland to Italy to Germany have stressed that the violence in Israel and Gaza necessitates an ever-greater focus on closed doors. Fear of besieged Palestinians escaping to Egypt seems to have added fresh momentum to a European Commission proposal to pay Egypt to keep migrants away from the E.U.
European Council President Charles Michel argued for the need to invest in the region to prevent spillover into Europe.
“If there would be more difficulties at the regional level, we would have immediately huge difficulties on the European soil because of the refugees,” he said in an interview with the Associated Press. He added: “We know that in our societies across the E.U., there are also different feelings, emotions among our citizens, and this is very important not to import within the E.U. the tragic conflict.”
The response stands in stark contrast to the bloc’s decision to offer temporary protection to millions of refugees fleeing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And it is reminiscent of the anti-migrant sentiment that surged when Syrians and others from the Middle East and North Africa fled to Europe in 2015 and 2016.
Migration had already returned as a policy priority in Europe this year as the result of a dramatic increase in arrivals. Now, advocates say the Israel-Gaza war is being invoked to further fuel an anti-migrant agenda, and they worry it will lead to more Islamophobia and human rights abuses at Europe’s borders.
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“This issue is being politicized and weaponized alongside refugee issues everywhere in Europe,” said Nadia Hardman, a researcher in the refugee and migrant rights division of Human Rights Watch.
“It is desperately sad and frightening to see that at a moment like this … the talk turns to migration,” she said. “It’s such a jump and a leap from anything we are actually seeing right now.”
Nearly a month into the Israel-Gaza war, there is no evidence of an exodus from Gaza. Very few Palestinian civilians have been able to leave.
On Wednesday, following extended negotiations, a small number of injured people and foreign passport holders were evacuated to Egypt. Some 2 million others remain within the enclave.
Even if more Palestinian civilians were to leave, it is not clear how many would end up in Europe. Historically, most of the Palestinian diaspora has remained in the Middle East, spread among dozens of refugee camps in several countries. Within Europe, Germany has one of the largest communities of Palestinian descent. Some estimates put the number as high as 100,000, but even then it would represent a small sliver of Germany’s population of 83 million.
Still, since the early days of this war, some European leaders have latched on to the potential for an exodus.
On Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned Europe will “likely have another wave of migrants from the Middle East.”
Just over a week into the conflict, Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) highlighted the risk of increased migration and called for a ban on new arrivals from the region.
“We are demanding a clear announcement from the Chancellery that Germany will no longer accept migrants from Gaza and the Middle East,” party co-leader Alice Weidel said.
She also sought to cast pro-Palestinian rallies as indicative of Germany’s “irresponsible asylum migration policy.”
Soon after, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that her country would reinstate checks on its border with Slovenia in response to events in the Middle East.
“The intensification of crisis hotspots on Europe’s borders, particularly after the attack on Israel, has in fact increased the threat level of violent action also within the Union,” the Italian government said in a statement.
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Sara Kelany, a lawmaker with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and its lead on migration in the lower house, said the prospect of more instability in the Middle East showed that the political right has been “prophetic” in its previous calls to keep people out.
Others have pointed to incidents of antisemitism and indications of support for Hamas in the streets of European capitals as evidence of mistakes about who has been allowed to settle in Europe, with the suggestion that these are imported problems.
Greek Migration Minister Dimitris Kairidis urged Europe to be vigilant, noting the attack in Belgium and the Israel-Gaza war, in an interview with Reuters published Oct. 23.
“There is always the risk, if instability in the Middle East spreads, and especially if it engulfs neighboring countries like Egypt, which has a very big population, things can become really dangerous,” he said.
“We need … better guarding of borders, combating criminal networks of smugglers, returns for those who do not get asylum,” he added.
Helena Lindholm, a professor at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg who studies the Palestinian diaspora, said the rhetoric from some European leaders reflects a tendency to see migration primarily through the lens of security, as opposed to humanitarian commitments.
Recent remarks from E.U. leaders and officials reminded her of the periods after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in New York and the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, when there was a rhetorical push to equate all Muslims and Arabs with terrorism.
Palestinian communities in Europe already face Islamophobia and xenophobia, she said, and efforts to link the current conflict to terrorism will make that worse.
“This all feeds into polarization where there are threats and increased insecurity for both Arab and Jewish communities in Europe,” she said. “It is done with the purpose of influencing public opinion so that public opinion is increasingly anti-migration.”
Kate Brady in Berlin and Stefano Pitrelli in Rome contributed to this report.