The NFL’s MVP race is wide open in 2023, and numerous contenders have emerged from the woodwork in recent weeks.
C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott have been riding hot streaks of late that have allowed them to significantly shorten the odds of winning the award. That has created a buzz about which players are legitimate MVP candidates and which are merely flashes in the pan.
As it stands, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is among those viewed as a legitimate MVP candidate. He has backed up the five-year, $260 million contract he signed during the offseason with one of his best seasons as a passer.
And while he may not rival his 2019 MVP season, it’s undeniable that he has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this season.
MORE: Full details of Ravens’ massive draft-night extension with Lamar Jackson
But will Jackson take home the MVP? He will have to emerge from a crowded field to do so to close the 2023 NFL season. Here’s a breakdown of his chances to become just the 11th multi-time winner of the NFL MVP award.
Lamar Jackson MVP odds
Lamar Jackson currently has the third-shortest odds to win NFL MVP, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook. He is listed with +400 odds to take home the award, giving him an implied 20 percent chance of winning it.
It’s not a surprise to see Jackson listed among the MVP favorites. After all, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL during the 2023 season. And if the Ravens — who have a record of 7-3 — can continue to win, he will further solidify his standing among the most deserving MVP candidates league-wide.
Lamar Jackson stats 2023
Jackson’s stats from the 2023 NFL season may not be prolific, and at the very least, they don’t compare to the ones that he posted during his 2019 MVP campaign. Even so, Jackson ranks in the top five in most of the passing efficiency metrics across the league and has been arguably the best scrambler at the position this season.
Below is a look at Jackson’s stats through 10 weeks of the 2023 season and where he ranks leaguewide in each notable category.
Note: Rushing stat rankings are among quarterbacks.
Stat Total Rank Comp. % 70.3 3rd Passing yards 2,177 14th Pass TDs 10 T-19th INTs 5 T-2nd Yards per attempt 7.9 5th Passer rating 98.1 10th QBR 61.3 12th PFF grade 87.5 T-4th Carries 92 1st Rushing yards 481 1st Rush TDs 5 T-3rd Yards per carry 5.2 2nd
Some may be less than impressed with Jackson’s having just 15 touchdowns to date, but it’s worth noting that the 2023 NFL season is one of the lowest-scoring campaigns in recent memory. So, when accounting for that, his 15 scores are actually impressive.
And when looking at his top-10 passer rating, it’s easy to see why he is emerging as an MVP candidate just past the midpoint of the 2023 NFL season.
MORE: Lamar Jackson rips apart Lions defense in stellar effort
NFL MVP odds 2023
Still, Jackson has some ground to make up on the two quarterbacks ahead of him. Patrick Mahomes (+280) and Jalen Hurts (+350) currently have shorter odds to win the award.
Per Caesar’s Sportsbook, Jackson is one of just five MVP candidates to have odds shorter than 10-1 to take home the award. Below is a look at the 13 candidates who have better than 50-1 odds — or a 2 percent chance — of being named MVP.
Player Odds Patrick Mahomes +280 Jalen Hurts +350 Lamar Jackson +400 Tua Tagovailoa +650 Joe Burrow +850 Christian McCaffrey +1800 Brock Purdy +1800 Josh Allen +2200 C.J. Stroud +2500 Jared Goff +3000 Dak Prescott +3500 Tyreek Hill +4000 Trevor Lawrence +5000
How Lamar Jackson’s stats compare to Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts
Jackson may currently find himself behind Mahomes and Hurts in the NFL’s MVP odds, but statistically, he compares favorably to the Chiefs and Eagles QBs.
While Mahomes and Hurts have posted better passing totals than Jackson, he has been more productive on the ground. He also has been the most efficient through the air among the three, so that could help him to break any close ties.
Below is a look at how the quarterbacks compare through 10 weeks of the 2023 NFL season.
Stat Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts Comp. % 70.3 68.6 68.9 Passing yards 2,177 2,442 2,347 Pass TDs 10 17 15 INTs 5 8 8 Yards per attempt 7.9 7.3 7.7 Passer rating 98.1 96.7 97.0 QBR 61.3 72.9 66.0 PFF grade 87.5 (T-4th) 87.1 (6th) 81.3 (11th) Carries 92 42 88 Rushing yards 481 258 316 Rush TDs 5 0 7 Yards per carry 5.2 6.1 3.6
Of course, it must be noted that the Ravens haven’t yet had their bye week, so both Mahomes and Hurts will have time to widen the statistical passing gap between themselves and Jackson. But either way, this seems like a close race, and it’s one that Jackson’s efficiency might allow him to win.
But while this trio contains the frontrunners for the award at this time, the battle for the MVP remains wide open.
MORE: Where Ravens rank in jam-packed AFC North entering Week 10
Is Lamar Jackson a good MVP bet?
There is certainly a case to be made to bet on Jackson to win the NFL MVP. The 4-1 odds on him are a decent value compared to the other top quarterbacks on the board, so he at least warrants consideration.
That said, there are some issues with backing Jackson. Namely, his passing stats rank middle-of-the-pack compared to some of the other high-end quarterbacks. That may ultimately hold him back in the race for the MVP, even if he continues to complete better than 70 percent of his passes.
The other issue is that Jackson’s schedule isn’t exactly a favorable one. Per Tankathon, the Ravens have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL from Week 10 on. Included within that are two division games against the Bengals and Steelers, a clash with a top-flight 49ers defense and a battle with a high-flying Dolphins offense.
Could Jackson do enough in these games to stay in the MVP race? Sure, but when considering the strength of Baltimore’s opponents along with the fact that the team will be on its bye in Week 13, it may be difficult for him to reach the threshold needed to challenge the other passers also vying for the honor.
Thus, betting on another MVP candidate probably makes more sense. Jared Goff and Dak Prescott stand out among the mid-tier value picks, so pairing one of them with either Mahomes — who has games against the Patriots, Packers and Chargers down the stretch — looks like the better play.
But, hey, if you’re a believer in Jackson, by all means back him at 4-1 odds. It’s unlikely that those will get much longer as the season continues — provided he keeps playing well.