Eight months into Israel’s war in Gaza, a string of standoffs, schisms and ultimatums have brought Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet to the brink of collapse and raised the prospect that his own coalition could follow, possibly leading to new elections.
Externally, the embattled prime minister is under growing pressure from the public to bring home Israel’s remaining hostages and from the Biden administration to reach a cease-fire agreement with Hamas. Within his unity government, formed less than a week after the deadly militant attacks on Oct. 7, he is contending with rebellions by allies and opponents alike.
Conservative hard-liners openly pledged over the weekend to pull out of the government if Netanyahu agrees to the deal that President Biden promoted Friday as “an Israeli proposal.”
Religious parties have threatened to withdraw support from the coalition over court rulings, expected within days, that could eliminate the exemption from military service long granted to ultra-Orthodox youth.
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Yoav Gallant, the defense minister from Netanyahu’s own Likud party, has demanded that the prime minister publicly commit to avoiding an indefinite Israeli occupation of Gaza.
The most immediate challenge comes from Benny Gantz, an opposition leader who, along with Netanyahu and Gallant, is one of three voting members of the war cabinet. Gantz has given Netanyahu until Saturday to come out with a strategic long-term plan for Gaza or he says he will step down from the war cabinet and pull his party from the government.
The departure of Gantz, Netanyahu’s chief political rival, would not bring the government down itself. And a no-confidence motion filed in the Israeli parliament last week by his National Unity party stands no chance of passing. But political analysts question how much longer Netanyahu can keep it all together.
“The snowball has started to roll,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “Gantz’s move is not going to directly put an end to this coalition, but the coalition is beginning to collapse in on itself.”
Netanyahu’s troubles became more pronounced Friday after Biden made public a recent proposal by Israel’s war cabinet for a six-week pause in fighting and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners — meant to pave the way for a final end to the conflict. On a call Monday with the emir of Qatar, Biden “confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms” offered to Hamas, according to a White House readout.
But Netanyahu has sought to distance himself from the proposal, and his far-right partners have been unequivocal that if a deal is reached, they will try to bring down his coalition.
If the government “accepts this surrender offer, we will not be part of it, and will work to replace the failed leadership with a new one,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Monday. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said he was prepared to “dismantle the government.”
Those close to Netanyahu said he is hoping to delay any breakup for as long as possible, fearing that public anger over his failure to prevent Oct. 7 and to free more hostages could lead to an electoral wipeout. Some suggest the prime minister wants to hold on until U.S. elections in November, hoping that former president Donald Trump might replace Biden in the White House.
But the prime minister is comfortable with the quickening pace of political developments and prepared to make the most of circumstances, according to one Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
He has no intention of stepping aside, the official said, and if an election comes, he would campaign on the same right-wing themes that have made him Israel’s longest-serving leader — casting Gantz, Gallant and other rivals as soft on the war against Hamas and himself as a bulwark against a Palestinian state.
“He may not excel at military strategy, but he does excel at political maneuvering,” said the official. “You can’t count him out.”
Indeed, Netanyahu’s prospects for surviving a coalition may have brightened in recent weeks. After trailing in opinion polls for months, Netanyahu narrowly led Gantz in a recent survey on Israelis’ preference for prime minister, although neither politician garnered more than 36 percent and Netanyahu remains widely unpopular.
Citing those improved poll numbers, U.S. officials are highly skeptical that Gantz’s ultimatum alone will result in the prime minister bowing to his demands.
Regardless, the officials take Gantz’s threat to exit the war cabinet seriously and anticipate it could make its fractious dynamics even more unruly. Under one scenario, Netanyahu could be left to govern with his coalition of ultraconservative ministers, tilting decision-making even further to the right.
During repeated visits to Tel Aviv, U.S. officials said, they have witnessed a near-constant display of backbiting and feuding among Netanyahu and his political rivals. Secretary of State Antony Blinken typically prefers to hold private, discreet meetings with an array of Israeli politicians to facilitate more-candid discussions.
When rival factions are in a room together, they are often guarded in their comments, given the frequency of leaks to Israeli media by ministers seeking to portray political opponents in a negative light, said two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive political environment.
Netanyahu’s former national security adviser, Yaakov Amidror, disputed the American characterization. The war cabinet has largely achieved consensus on major issues, he said, including Israel’s recent offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Gantz’s ultimatum would have no bearing on the prosecution of the war, he said.
“They will name another war cabinet,” Amidror said. “What he is doing is not about the war — it’s about politics.”
But Israeli analysts say Gantz’s move could prompt other Netanyahu rivals within his own party to make a bid for power.
The prime minister’s bedrock support has eroded, according to a Hebrew University poll released this month, showing 17 percent of Likud voters prepared to withhold their votes if Netanyahu leads the party in new elections.
A right-wing candidate other than Netanyahu would have more appeal to a majority of Israelis than a center-right or center-left figure such as Gantz or opposition leader Yair Lapid, Talshir said.
“It’s not going to be Netanyahu versus Gantz,” she said. “It’s going to be someone else representing the right wing.”
Likud operatives are watching closely for signs that Gallant might be preparing to take the prime minister on more directly. Gallant’s office declined to comment.
“The key to bringing Bibi down is inside of Likud,” said the Israeli official, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “And the key to Likud is Gallant.”