It’s Thanksgiving week, and that means a full plate of NFL games.
No teams are on a bye. Six teams will play on Thursday. Two more on Friday. Twenty-two will play on Sunday, and “Monday Night Football” will officially put a bow on one of the busiest weeks of the year.
Following a lackluster schedule in Week 11, this week should feature plenty of better matchups. The Lions will be aiming for their second consecutive full season sweep of the Packers on Thanksgiving, and later the 49ers will try to further add some distance between them and the Seahawks.
On Sunday, the Jaguars will look to avenge an earlier loss to the red-hot Texans and cement themselves atop the AFC South standings. Later, the Bills will try and keep it rolling against the Eagles, and the Ravens will face another AFC test when they travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers.
NFL WEEK 12 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.
Here’s how the model sees Week 12 shaping up.
NFL picks, predictions Week 12
Lions (-11) vs. Packers
Win probability: 81.9%, Lions
The last time the Lions and Packers faced off in Green Bay, Detroit ran over the Packers in a 34-20 win. Now, they’ll meet in Detroit on Thanksgiving, and the Lions are once again heavily favored against the Packers. Caesars has set the Lions as only 7.5-point favorites, but the model is more confident, putting Detroit up by 11.
Cowboys (-12) vs. Commanders
Win probability: 84.7%, Cowboys
The Commanders just gave up 31 points to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants. Yeah, things aren’t looking so good in Washington. This week, they hit the road to Dallas to face a Cowboys team fresh off another dominating performance. Caesars has the Cowboys as 11-point favorites, and the model isn’t thinking much different, putting Dallas up by 12.
49ers (-7) vs. Seahawks
Win probability: 74.4%, 49ers
Geno Smith is looking good to face the 49ers, but this is still a San Francisco team hitting its stride heading into the clash with Seattle. The model and Caesars are in near agreement on the line, with Caesars putting the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites to the model’s 7-point spread.
Dolphins (-7) vs. Jets
Win probability: 72.9%, Dolphins
It’s time for the Tim Boyle era in New York to begin after Zach Wilson was benched this week. Given his lack of notable playing time, the model hasn’t projected him as low as it might of a quarterback who completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes while playing at Connecticut. Caesars has the Dolphins as 10-point favorites, while the model has the Jets as just 7-point underdogs.
Saints (-2) vs. Falcons
Win probability: 57%, Saints
The Saints have a chance to make some room for themselves in the NFC South against one of their top competitors, but it will require winning on the road against a team fresh off a bye. Still, the Falcons fell to the Cardinals and are in a bit of a tailspin with three straight losses. The Saints are also coming off a bye week, and the model is leaning toward New Orleans as 2-point favorites, while Caesars has the game as a pick ’em.
Bengals (-3) vs. Steelers
Win probability: 60.2%, Bengals
Replacing Joe Burrow with Jake Browning as the quarterback for the remainder of the season plummeted the Bengals’ playoff odds from 30.9 percent to 12.2 percent. Still, the model isn’t sold on Pittsburgh, particularly after it mustered just 10 points last week. This is the first deviation between the model and Caesars on the winner of the game, however, with the model liking the Bengals by 3 and Caesars picking Pittsburgh by 1.
Colts (-3) vs. Buccaneers
Win probability: 61%, Colts
The Colts are one of the surprise playoff contenders that benefits from Cincinnati’s quarterback turmoil, sitting at 5-5 and right in the thick of the wild-card race. Indianapolis will be hosting Tampa Bay and is coming off a bye, which should help against a decent Buccaneers squad coming off a rough week against San Francisco. The model and Caesars are in near agreement, with the model going Indianapolis by 3 and Caesars setting the line at 2.5 for the Colts.
Jaguars (-1) vs. Texans
Win probability: 54.5%, Jaguars
This has the chance to be the best game of the day, with the Texans making a legitimate push for the AFC South, and the Jaguars rebounding from a rough San Francisco loss to throttle the Titans. After Houston won in Jacksonville earlier in the season, this game could go a long way toward deciding the division crown. The model and Caesars both like the Jaguars to even the season series, with lines of -1 and -1.5 for the Jaguars, respectively.
Giants (PK) vs. Patriots
Win probability: 50.3%, Giants
This also has the chance to be one of the more intriguing games of the weekend. A two-time Super Bowl matchup, this year, it’s more like the Toilet Bowl with the Giants and Patriots each spiraling in serious contention for the No. 1 pick. New England has a 19 percent chance of securing the No. 1 pick, while the Giants’ win against Washington dropped it to only a 9 percent chance of finishing with the league’s worst record. The model has the game slightly leaning toward New York to collect a second straight win in a pick ’em, while the Patriots are 3-point favorites from Caesars.
Titans (-5) vs. Panthers
Win probability: 66.2%, Titans
This also has a real shot at being the Toilet Bowl game of the week. The Titans were demolished by Jacksonville, and now sit at 3-7, second-worst in the AFC, while the Panthers have the worst record in the NFL at 1-9. In Nashville, it’s lining up slightly better for the Titans to win, with the model favoring them by 5 and Caesars setting the line at 3.5 for Tennessee.
Rams (-1) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 54.8%, Rams
All of a sudden, the Cardinals are an intriguing team, with Kyler Murray appearing to fit in well with the Jonathan Gannon-coach team. But Los Angeles picked up some momentum with a win over Seattle in Matthew Stafford’s return. This quietly could be an interesting game between two teams and quarterbacks that met in the playoffs just two seasons ago. Caesars is calling it a pick ’em, while the model is leaning by a point to the visiting Rams.
Browns (PK) vs. Broncos
Win probability: 50.7%, Browns
The Browns survived a defensive slugfest with the Steelers with Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the offense in the first game without Deshaun Watson, but now face a suddenly hot Broncos team that has won four straight over the Packers, Chiefs, Bills and Vikings. The model is leaning Cleveland in a toss up, though Caesars is giving a 2.5-point edge to the Broncos.
Eagles (-6) vs. Bills
Win probability: 70.3%, Eagles
Philadelphia just keeps finding ways to win, recently shutting out the Chiefs in the second half to stage a comeback and pick up an impressive win in a Super Bowl rematch. The Eagles and Bills are both in the middle of challenging stretches of games, but this game in Philadelphia favors the Eagles, with the model picking Jalen Hurts and his team to be 6-point favorites, while Caesars is setting the Eagles as only 3-point favorites.
Chiefs (-12) vs. Raiders
Win probability: 85.3%, Chiefs
The Chiefs’ offense still doesn’t look quite right, especially after it went scoreless at home in the second half, albeit against a standout Philadelphia defense. But maybe a get-well game in Las Vegas is just what Patrick Mahomes and Co. need. The Raiders have looked better under interim coach Antonio Pierce, but this still figures to be a Chiefs’ game. The model likes Kansas City by 12, while Caesars has the line at 9.5 points for Kansas City.
Ravens (-5) vs. Chargers
Win probability: 66.8%, Ravens
The Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way, dropping an inexplicable home defeat to the punchless Packers on Sunday to suddenly throw their playoff hopes in serious doubt. Suddenly, a “Sunday Night Football” game against the Ravens feels like a must-win to stay in a competitive AFC that has now seen the Chargers to a tie for third-worst in the conference. The Ravens are only 3.5-point favorites at Caesars, but are 5-point favorites in the model’s calculations.
Vikings (-8) vs. Bears
Win probability: 76.5%, Vikings
The Justin Fields-led Bears looked much better against the Lions, but still managed to blow a 12-point lead with less than five minutes to play. The Vikings struggled against Denver, but remain in the NFC playoff chase and look to be the better team at home on “Monday Night Football.” Caesars has the Vikings as just 3.5-point favorites, while the model is much more bullish on Minnesota as 8-point favorites.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Dolphins 12-5 87.8% 7.1% 94.9% 15.3% 14.3% 5.5% Bills 9-8 10.8% 28.0% 38.8% 0.0% 3.7% 1.5% Jets 7-10 1.4% 2.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Patriots 4-13 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%AFC North Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Ravens 12-5 71.4% 26.0% 97.3% 15.6% 23.7% 11.8% Browns 11-6 21.7% 62.0% 83.6% 3.8% 3.0% 1.3% Steelers 10-7 6.7% 43.7% 50.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% Bengals 8-9 0.3% 11.9% 12.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%AFC South Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Jaguars 12-5 70.6% 24.2% 94.8% 13.5% 10.4% 4.3% Texans 10-7 27.1% 44.4% 71.5% 3.3% 2.9% 1.0% Colts 8-9 2.2% 21.1% 23.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Titans 6-11 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%AFC West Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Chiefs 13-4 98.3% 1.0% 99.3% 47.9% 39.8% 19.7% Chargers 8-9 1.1% 14.8% 15.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% Broncos 8-9 0.4% 11.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Raiders 7-10 0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%NFC East Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Eagles 14-3 96.4% 3.6% 100.0% 73.6% 50.9% 28.4% Cowboys 11-6 3.6% 93.2% 96.8% 1.3% 6.8% 3.2% Commanders 5-12 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Giants 5-12 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%NFC North Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Lions 13-4 91.2% 8.5% 99.7% 15.5% 16.8% 8.3% Vikings 9-8 8.6% 75.5% 84.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% Packers 7-10 0.2% 12.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bears 5-12 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%NFC South Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Saints 9-8 63.5% 10.3% 73.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Buccaneers 8-9 18.9% 14.3% 33.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Falcons 7-10 17.6% 9.6% 27.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Panthers 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%NFC West Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% 49ers 12-5 94.2% 5.3% 99.5% 9.6% 21.9% 12.6% Seahawks 9-8 5.6% 55.2% 60.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Rams 7-10 0.2% 11.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cardinals 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%