The Chiefs, Payments, Bengals and Jets entered the 2023 NFL season with Tremendous Bowl aspirations. Three of the 4 misplaced — two by blowouts. But for as unhealthy because the three losses by the top-tier AFC contenders have been, none noticed a dip of their Tremendous Bowl and playoff odds as stark because the Jets.
New York entered the yr as one of many projected wild-card groups, per Sporting Information’ projection mannequin, with a 3.7 p.c likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl. However the damage to Aaron Rodgers dropped the Jets’ playoff odds down from 59.7 p.c earlier than Week 1 to 36.5 p.c heading into Week 2. The Tremendous Bowl odds? Right down to 1.1 p.c, placing them ninth within the AFC.
NFL WEEK 2 PICKS: Straight up | In opposition to the unfold
Every week, Sporting Information’ mannequin will venture each recreation within the NFL 10,000 occasions to generate the variety of occasions a crew wins a matchup and calculate the win chance. The mannequin adjusts after every week because it learns extra about every crew and that crew’s quarterback. When the Jets changed Rodgers with Zach Wilson, the mannequin closely penalized the crew and took much less inventory into its slender win over the Payments.
Listed for every recreation is its projected unfold, in accordance with the mannequin, and a crew’s win chance. We have additionally included up to date playoff and Tremendous Bowl odds on the backside. The percentages listed with every recreation aren’t based mostly on bookmakers, however slightly how the mannequin sees the sport taking part in out.
Here is how the mannequin sees the second week of the season taking part in out.
NFL picks, predictions Week 2
Eagles (-6) vs. Vikings
Win chance: 70.5%, Eagles
The Eagles may need seemed a contact rusty on the highway in New England to start the season, however make no mistake: the mannequin nonetheless sees Philadelphia as a juggernaut. The Vikings, alternatively, simply misplaced to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Not precisely a promising begin to the season. As such, Philadelphia is among the many largest favorites in Week 2.
Packers (-1) to beat Falcons
Win chance: 53.1%, Packers
Are you loving the Packers? The mannequin’s not fairly there but, however it did give Inexperienced Bay a spike from a projected last-place end (albeit, narrowly) all the way in which as much as second within the NFC North with the Jordan Love period off to a scorching begin. It additionally likes the Falcons after a formidable begin to the yr in opposition to the Panthers. The mannequin is taking Inexperienced Bay in a detailed one.
Payments (-9) to beat Raiders
Win chance: 77.8%, Payments
Nobody is an even bigger favourite than the Payments regardless of a crushing loss to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. However Buffalo remains to be a heavyweight within the AFC, and the mannequin stays low on the Raiders regardless of a detailed win in opposition to the Broncos on the highway. The sport being in Buffalo solely makes this extra lopsided within the Payments’ favor.
Bengals (-3) to beat Ravens
Win chance: 61.1%, Bengals
The Bengals have been utterly dismantled by the hands of the Browns to start out the season, and their odds have taken successful for it. The Ravens may need beat the Texans, however in addition they sustained a number of accidents, together with a season-ending one to JK Dobbins. The mannequin doesn’t take note of Baltimore’s accidents, however between home-field benefit for Cincinnati and its intensive success, it stays a area aim favourite.
Lions (-5) to beat Seahawks
Win chance: 67.4%, Lions
The Lions have taken the NFL by storm. The preseason hype constructed right into a crescendo once they knocked off the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium to formally kick off the 2023 season. Now, the Detroit trustworthy get to see their crew host the Seahawks in a recreation the place the Lions are available in as snug favorites in opposition to a squad that was picked aside by a Cooper Kupp-less Rams crew.
Texans (-1) to beat Colts
Win chance: 54.9%, Texans
Neither the Texans nor the Colts are anticipated to make it to the playoffs this yr, however this nonetheless has all of the makings of an entertaining recreation. First-round rookies C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson face off after every made promising debuts in Week 1. The mannequin barely favor the Texans and Stroud within the AFC South showdown, with dwelling area serving to put Houston over the sting.
Chiefs (-3) to beat Jaguars
Win chance: 61%, Chiefs
The Chiefs dropped their home-opener, and it would not get any simpler with a divisional spherical rematch in opposition to the Jaguars. Jacksonville pulled away late in opposition to the Colts and Trevor Lawrence continues to seem like a star quarterback on this league. However Patrick Mahomes and Kansas Metropolis, even heading into Jacksonville, get the sting within the mannequin’s eyes.
Chargers (-2) to beat Titans
Win chance: 55.7%, Chargers
The Chargers confronted an enormous early take a look at in opposition to the Dolphins, and whereas the offense stayed within the battle, the protection was carved up by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill within the shedding effort. The Titans did not precisely present a lot offensive prowess of their shedding effort to the Saints, nonetheless, and the mannequin expects Los Angeles to come back out forward on the highway.
Bears (-1) to beat Buccaneers
Win chance: 52.9%, Bears
This is among the largest gaps between the mannequin and bookmakers. Oddsmakers have the Buccaneers favored to win this one after Mayfield seemed promising in opposition to the Vikings, coupled with the Bears’ disastrous dwelling outing in opposition to the Packers. The mannequin is not giving up on the Bears simply but — with religion that Justin Fields will flip it round in opposition to a extra questionable protection, even when on the highway.
Giants (-8) to beat Cardinals
Win chance: 75.7%, Giants
No crew was extra completely smacked round than the Giants, who have been waxed by the Cowboys on “Sunday Night time Soccer” to start the season. Thankfully for New York, it will get a Week 2 conflict in opposition to the Cardinals, actively trying to be the worst crew within the league and get subsequent yr’s No. 1 choose. Arizona almost beat the Commanders final week, however the mannequin nonetheless sees New York as snug bounce-back picks.
49ers (-5) to beat Rams
Win chance: 66.7%, 49ers
Coming off a dismal 2022, expectations have been low for the Rams. However Matthew Stafford turned in a classic efficiency throwing to Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua as Los Angeles shocked the Seahawks in Seattle. This week, nonetheless, the Rams face a 49ers crew that tore aside a strong Steelers’ squad, and vaulted up as the brand new Tremendous Bowl favorites, per the mannequin, after losses to Kansas Metropolis, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Little question San Francisco will get the sting on the highway.
Cowboys (-5) to beat Jets
Win chance: 68.8%, Cowboys
With Rodgers, this may need been a unique story. Or at the least a better one. The Cowboys’ utter demolition of the Giants coupled with their preseason expectations doubtless would have stored them as favorites over the Jets in Dallas whatever the quarterback. However Wilson throwing passes as a substitute of Rodgers makes the Cowboys a snug favourite at dwelling.
Broncos (-4) to beat Commanders
Win chance: 62.7%, Broncos
The Sean Payton period in Denver started with a dud because the Broncos nonetheless seem like a dysfunctional offense. However the Commanders barely squeaked previous a dreadful Cardinals crew at dwelling, and although Sam Howell had his moments, the general stat line wasn’t precisely promising. The mannequin expects Week 2 to favor the Broncos at dwelling.
Dolphins (-1) to beat Patriots
Win chance: 54.8%, Dolphins
That Dolphins passing offense positive seems scary. Tagovailoa seemed like an MVP candidate and Hill positive on his strategy to a 2,000-yard season. That is why it’s kind of stunning to see the Dolphins solely as 1-point favorites, per the mannequin, in opposition to a Patriots crew that got here into the yr anticipated to be fourth within the AFC East. However Mac Jones and New England seemed higher than anticipated in opposition to Philadelphia, and will maintain their very own at dwelling on “Sunday Night time Soccer.”
Saints (-1) to beat Panthers
Win chance: 52.3%, Saints
The Saints have been one of many mannequin’s darlings for the reason that preseason, when it had New Orleans because the runaway division favourite and with the fourth-best odds to win the NFC. After the Saints’ so-so exhibiting in opposition to the Titans, nonetheless, the mannequin is expressing some skepticism with the Saints on the highway in Charlotte. The Panthers are nonetheless seen as dwelling underdogs, nonetheless, after their very own lackluster Week 1 efficiency.
Browns (-2) to beat Steelers
Win chance: 57.1%, Browns
The Browns shocked the Bengals in a 24-3 walloping that has solely added kerosene to the 2023 hype surrounding Cleveland. The Browns have been initially heading into this recreation as slight underdogs to the Steelers, however between Cleveland’s enormous Week 1 win and the Steelers’ blowout loss at dwelling to the 49ers, the Browns transfer in because the favorites to win this AFC North showdown on Monday.
Up to date NFL projections 2023
AFC East
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Payments
10-7
48.1%
22.8%
70.9%
11.5%
14.3%
7.5%
Dolphins
9-8
30.2%
23.8%
54%
5.9%
4.9%
2.4%
Jets
8-9
16%
20.5%
36.5%
2.4%
2.1%
1.1%
Patriots
7-10
5.8%
8.5%
14.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
AFC North
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Bengals
11-6
41.2%
34.8%
76%
16.3%
18.4%
10.8%
Ravens
10-7
29.1%
35.3%
64.4%
10.3%
8.4%
4%
Browns
10-7
22.5%
33.9%
56.4%
8.1%
5.4%
2.6%
Steelers
8-9
7.2%
19.2%
26.4%
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
AFC South
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Jaguars
10-7
63.6%
9.6%
73.2%
11%
7.9%
3.9%
Titans
8-9
24.2%
12.8%
37%
2.1%
1.8%
0.7%
Colts
6-11
6%
4.6%
10.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Texans
6-11
6.2%
3.7%
9.9%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
AFC West
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Chiefs
11-6
68.9%
16.3%
85.2%
25.3%
27.3%
14.4%
Chargers
9-8
16.8%
25.2%
42%
3%
4.6%
2.1%
Raiders
8-9
9.2%
18.2%
27.4%
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
Broncos
7-10
5.2%
10.8%
16%
0.5%
1%
0.5%
NFC East
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Eagles
11-6
50.5%
34.1%
84.6%
18.9%
20.9%
9.9%
Cowboys
11-6
40.7%
37.6%
78.3%
15%
15.3%
7%
Giants
8-9
6.5%
21.1%
27.6%
1.1%
1.8%
0.7%
Commanders
6-11
2.3%
10.4%
12.7%
0.3%
0.4%
0.1%
NFC North
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Lions
11-6
57.7%
18.3%
76%
11.5%
10.2%
4.9%
Packers
8-9
17.8%
20.2%
38%
2%
1.9%
0.7%
Vikings
8-9
16.4%
18.9%
35.3%
1.5%
2.9%
1.4%
Bears
7-10
8.2%
11.9%
20.1%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
NFC South
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
Saints
11-6
61.3%
18.5%
79.8%
13.2%
10%
4.6%
Falcons
9-8
26.2%
26.2%
52.4%
3.7%
2.3%
1.1%
Panthers
7-10
8.9%
14.7%
23.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
Buccaneers
6-11
3.6%
6.5%
10.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
NFC West
Staff
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Convention champion%
Tremendous Bowl champion%
49ers
12-5
77.9%
12.9%
90.8%
28.3%
28.2%
14.8%
Seahawks
8-9
11.4%
24%
35.4%
1.6%
2.9%
1.3%
Rams
8-9
10.4%
24%
34.4%
1.6%
1.7%
0.7%
Cardinals
4-13
0.2%
0.8%
1%
0%
0%
0%