The College Football Playoff committee gave fans, especially Ohio State supporters, a treat on Halloween with the release of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday night. The Buckeyes open at No. 1, Georgia at No. 2, Michigan at No. 3, and Florida State at No. 4.
If this top four shocked you, don’t worry. There is plenty of time for the rankings to self-correct. In the interim, it’s a great time to review odds to make the four-team College Football Playoff and offer up some bets to consider.
College Football Playoff rankings and odds
Here are the odds (via FanDuel) of making the College Football Playoff for the top ten teams in the first CFP rankings:
Ohio State +110Georgia -210Michigan -150Florida State -250Washington +155Oregon +165Texas +200Alabama +250Oklahoma +310Ole Miss +3500
Notable teams outside the top ten include LSU (+550), Louisville (+2400), USC (+3000), Notre Dame (+3400), and Utah (+9500). Of these teams, Louisville is the only one with a single loss; the others all have two heading into Week 10.
These rankings are the first of six this season. History tells us that all four teams at the top of the rankings — Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan and Florida State — will probably not make the CFP. Last year, Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson were the top four in the first CFP rankings, and only two (Georgia and Ohio State) made the Playoff.
But that is not the only trend bettors should be aware of:
The original top four has gone on to make the CFP just once (2020).The No. 1 team in the first rankings has played in the national championship game six times.The initial No. 1 failed to make the CFP twice (Mississippi State in 2014 and Tennessee in 2022).A Group of Five team has made the CFP once (Cincinnati, 2021)A two-loss team has never made the CFP.
College Football Playoff odds: Seven bets to consider
If you want to bet on Florida State, Georgia, or Michigan, there isn’t much value in placing single bets on each. But if you were to combine the three into a parlay at FanDuel, you can increase your potential payout (this is not necessarily advisable betting strategy, however, as sportsbooks build a bigger house edge into their parlay pricing):
Florida State -250Georgia -210Michigan -150Parlay odds: +244
Let’s look at a few teams with plus-money odds:
Ohio State +120 (BetRivers)
Three of Ohio State’s four remaining regular-season games are against unranked teams. Even if they dominate those three games, they could slip in the rankings. Whether they make the CFP depends on two things: beating Michigan and winning the Big Ten.
Washington +155 (FanDuel)
The Huskies have looked fantastic for most of the season, but not the last two, where they struggled against two lackluster teams, Arizona State and Stanford. But they face three top-20 teams in the final four weeks of the regular season.
If they run the table, they’ll have a strong case for making the CFP.
Oregon +175 (Caesars)
The loss to Washington stings, but if they can win out, they will have four wins over the top 20 teams. If they can win a rematch vs. Washington in the Pac-12 title game, they will have a solid argument for making the Playoff.
Texas +240 (Caesars)
The win over Alabama is impressive, but they must run the table and beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to have a shot. It will not be easy, but it is possible.
Alabama +270 (DraftKings)
It helps that the loss to Texas came in Week 2, but they will need to win their last four regular-season games, starting with this weekend’s contest vs. LSU. They will also need to win the SEC title game, which will probably be against Georgia.
LSU +750 (DraftKings)
Early-season defeats like their Week 1 loss to Florida State can be forgiven. But to have a chance, the Tigers must beat LSU this weekend. The Tigers are road underdogs at.