When the Patriots travel to face the Steelers to open Week 14 of the 2023 NFL regular season on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), there are not many points expected with a pair of backup QBs starting.
It will be Bailey Zappe for New England over an ineffective Mac Jones, while Pittsburgh will turn to Mitch Trubisky for an injured Kenny Pickett (ankle). The Patriots also will be without running back Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), turning their backfield over to Ezekiel Elliott. The Steelers figure to stay leaning on the run with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
The Patriots lost a 6-0 game to the Chargers despite playing great defense last Sunday. The Steelers’ offense and defense disappeared in a bad upset loss to the Cardinals in Week 13.
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Which team will rebound to win a key game as the Steelers push for the playoffs and the Patriots try to dig out of the AFC cellar? Here’s a betting breakdown for New England vs. Pittsburgh on TNF:
Patriots vs. Steelers odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Spread: Patriots +6 (-110) | Steelers -6 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 30 (-110) | UNDER 30 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +215 | Steelers -267
This is a very low total for an NFL game. History says these types of numbers are reserved for Iowa’s modern awful offense in college, but here you have two defensive-minded coaches in Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin with offenses that lack firepower. The Steelers are still near-TD favorites despite flopping vs. Arizona.
Should you bet the Steelers against the spread vs. Patriots?
The Steelers might have been caught in a trap vs. long-time conference rivals had they not lost to the Cardinals and played so poorly overall. Tomlin will light a fire in them because the Patriots still inspire motivation instead of being a team to take lightly.
T.J. Watt should be revved up to go after a lesser QB, and the Steelers’ secondary can easily contain Bailey Zappe’s weapons. On the other side, the Steelers have enough big-play passing juice and rushing pop to outscore the Patriots and control the game late.
Our Pick: Steelers -6 (-110)
Should you bet the Patriots-Steelers OVER?
This number is tricky because you can see both sides happening easily, so the recommendation would be to avoid it. Both teams could end up having more offensive success than expected, but that could come from a lot of steady rushing, ball control, and slowing down the game.
The Steelers, however, are the better big-play team and will get that along with effective, grind-it-out rushing. The Patriots will struggle just to hit double-digit points on the road with Ezekiel Elliott being the only aspect that works.
Our Pick: PUSH, but leaning UNDER 30 (-110)
Final score prediction: Steelers 20, Patriots 10