Mike McCarthy has been on the hot seat at the end of each of his first three seasons in Dallas, and it looks like he might be keeping that tradition going despite a successful season.
On the surface, it may seem absurd that a coach who just led his team to a 12-5 season would be in danger of losing his job. After all, it was McCarthy who took control of the offensive play-calling in 2023 after letting the well-regarded Kellen Moore walk.
All McCarthy did was turn Dak Prescott into a legitimate MVP candidate who led the NFL in touchdown passes (36).
Surely, any other coach would be safe after this effort. However, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones hasn’t given McCarthy a full vote of confidence as Dallas enters the postseason. That is leading many to believe that McCarthy is under a win-now mandate, and any sort of early exit in an open NFC would open the door for the Cowboys to make a coaching change.
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Here’s what to know about McCarthy’s job security as the Cowboys look to mount a deep postseason run for the first time in decades.
Will Cowboys fire Mike McCarthy after a playoff loss?
The buzz surrounding McCarthy’s job security started after the Cowboys beat the Commanders in Week 18 to cap off a 12-5 season. Jones was asked directly after the game about McCarthy’s future, and he did not provide a vote of confidence.
“We’ll see how each game goes in the playoffs,” Jones said, per Cowboys beat writer Clarence Hill Jr.
Jones’ lukewarm response led many to assume that if McCarthy and the Cowboys lost early in the playoffs, that could be enough for the owner to move on from him. While McCarthy has the Cowboys in the playoffs for a third consecutive season, he has a record of just 1-2 in the postseason.
Were McCarthy to drop to 1-3 or 2-3, Jones may be faced with a tough decision about whether the veteran coach still has the skills needed to orchestrate a Super Bowl run.
That said, Jones seemed to give McCarthy more praise in his appearance on 105.3 The Fan’s Shan & RJ. He also walked back his comment a bit, saying that he “was a little surprised” that it got so much attention and explaining that he didn’t want to talk about McCarthy’s contract as he prepared for a playoff run.
“I don’t know how I could be any clearer,” Jones said of his comments. “Coach McCarthy is under contract for next year. So, that’s not an issue. Secondly, I couldn’t be more pleased with what he’s done, and how he’s coached. … I certainly haven’t sat down here right in the middle of the playoffs and started talking to him about a contract. Why would you do that?
“And by the way, he’s the busiest cat in all of Texas. … So, the last thing that I want to do is spend any time talking with him about these kinds of things, on agreements, extension of agreements, especially when I’ve got one. So, that’s it.”
It certainly sounds like Jones is planning to keep McCarthy in the fold. However, his status will need to be watched carefully because if the Packers become the first No. 7 seed to pull off an upset — or if the Cowboys fail to make it to the NFC Championship game, for which they haven’t qualified since 1996 — there could be a bit more heat on McCarthy’s seat.
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Mike McCarthy record
McCarthy has a career record of 167-102-2 during his 17 years as a head coach with the Packers and Cowboys. His winning percentage in Dallas (.627) has actually been better than his in Green Bay (.618), as he has led the Cowboys to three consecutive 12-5 seasons after a rocky 6-10 start with the franchise.
Below is a look at McCarthy’s record by season:
Year Team Record 2006 Packers 8-8 2007 Packers 13-3 2008 Packers 6-10 2009 Packers 11-5 2010 Packers 10-6 2011 Packers 15-1 2012 Packers 11-5 2013 Packers 8-7-1 2014 Packers 12-4 2015 Packers 10-6 2016 Packers 10-6 2017 Packers 7-9 2018 Packers 4-7-1 2020 Cowboys 6-10 2021 Cowboys 12-5 2022 Cowboys 12-5 2023 Cowboys 12-5
Below is McCarthy’s record by team:
Team Record Packers 125-77-2 Cowboys 42-25 Total 167-102-2
Given his record and Prescott’s performance this season, it’s easy to understand why Jones would express an interest in keeping McCarthy around.
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Mike McCarthy playoff record
Again, an early playoff exit might make it a tougher sell to keep McCarthy. Why? Because he hasn’t enjoyed much playoff success in recent seasons.
Overall, McCarthy has a playoff record of 11-10. Four of those wins came in the 2011 NFL postseason when he led the Packers to a Super Bowl title despite being the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
McCarthy might be able to rekindle some of that magic, but the fact of the matter is that he has led his teams to just three playoff appearances since 2017. They are 1-2 in those appearances so far, with the 2024 NFL playoff games still to be played.
If he can bolster that recent record with a couple of wins, he will likely solidify his chances of running it back in 2024.
However, an early exit could force Jones to face a difficult decision.