Chelsea have shown signs of turning their season around, and have a chance to build on that slowly solidifying foundation as they travel to meet relegation-threatened Luton Town on Saturday to slam the door shut on 2023.
The Blues have won two of their last three in Premier League play, plus their advancement past Newcastle United in the EFL Cup quarterfinals two weeks ago, giving hope to Mauricio Pochettino’s young squad.
However, they are catching Luton Town at a bad time, who themselves have won two straight matches to push the Hatters to the brink of pulling out of the relegation zone. Victories over Newcastle and Sheffield United leave Luton in 18th, just a point shy of leapfrogging Everton, who occupy the last safe spot.
The Sporting News reviews how this match could play out with much on the line for both clubs.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Luton Town vs Chelsea and bet Premier League matches
Luton vs Chelsea match facts
Date: Saturday, December 30, 2023 Kickoff Time: 12:30 p.m. local (7:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 a.m. PT) Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton, England) Official: Paul Tierney Last meeting: Chelsea 3-0 Luton Town (Aug. 25, 2023 | Premier League)
Luton vs Chelsea prediction, odds
Moneyline lean: Chelsea (-170) Score prediction: Luton Town 1-3 Chelsea
While Luton Town have won two straight games, they were exceedingly fortunate to come away from their last match with all three points, thoroughly dominated across the 90 minutes by Sheffield United.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are starting to show signs of cohesion under Mauricio Pochettino, with their extremely young squad building both fitness and form. The Blues create loads of chances but struggle to finish them, yet the finishing has improved, with Mykhaylo Mudryk leading the charge in front of goal.
If the struggling Nicolas Jackson can find his shooting boots, the Premier League is in for a shock. It should begin to turn for the Blues in short order.
Luton
win Draw Chelsea
win Both teams
to score Y / N Over / Under
2.5 goals CHE
-0.5 LUT
+0.5 DraftKings
(USA) +450 +340 -170 -140 / +115 -160 / +115 -185 +135
Luton vs Chelsea best bet
Pick: Over 3.5 total goals Odds: +105 (DraftKings)
With Chelsea beginning to turn the screw in front of goal, but still showing signs of youth, this game has the makings of another high-scoring affair.
The Blues did well to pour on the pressure against Crystal Palace last time out, but struggled to build on their early opener from Mykhaylo Mudryk. It fell apart just before halftime when one single lapse in concentration saw Palace equalize moments before the break, emblematic of Chelsea’s season.
For that reason, it’s likely that both teams should have opportunities to score. With Chelsea’s woeful finishing sure to turn around, and Luton doing well to make the most of their few attacking third chances, goals could flow in this match.
While both teams to score has little value relative to Luton’s low volume, the over gives Chelsea the chance to run up the score without needing them to concede as well, while still benefitting from that possibility.
Luton vs Chelsea prop bet
Pick: Chelsea 6+ shots on target Odds: -110 (FanDuel)
There’s good reason why Chelsea can meet or exceed this high bar to clear. Luton Town have conceded the most expected goals of any Premier League side thus far, and the second-most shots, including a 3.62 xG, 21-shot onslaught from Sheffield United last time out.
Only the heroics of goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski, who has the Premier League’s best xGOTA/goals conceded differential (+4.87) has kept them in matches.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are starting to show signs of improvement in front of goal. While they remain the Premier League’s worst finishing side this season, with a horrid goal/xG differential of -9.39, they looked far more selective against Crystal Palace, putting four of nine shots on target.
In the early-season matchup between these two sides, Chelsea managed eight shots on target, and the Blues put up six in the recent win over Sheffield United. With Mykhaylo Mudryk suddenly on fire, it leaves only Nicolas Jackson left to turn around his on-goal woes for Chelsea to truly start lighting up the scoreline.