ABUJA, Nigeria — Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger and restore its democracy collapsed as quickly as they began. Tensions have escalated because the Sunday deadline nears for doable army intervention by different West African international locations.
On Friday, the area’s protection chiefs finalized a plan to make use of drive towards the Niger junta — needing approval by their political leaders — if Mohamed Bazoum is just not reinstated as Niger’s president. A delegation of the bloc referred to as ECOWAS had gone to Niger however couldn’t meet with the coup chief, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who later declared that any aggression towards Niger “will see a direct response and with out warning.”
What began as an overthrow of the president by his closest commanders within the Presidential Guard has acquired the help of another troopers, together with the Nigerien military command.
Here is what to anticipate:
ECOWAS INTERVENTION
This could be the primary time in years that ECOWAS would attempt to forcefully put down a coup in West Africa, which has seen a number of profitable coups since 2020.
“The occasions of the final two days make it extra seemingly that this (army) intervention may very well occur,” mentioned Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst on the Oxford Analytica geopolitical intelligence agency. “And if they provide resistance to an ECOWAS intervention, this could transform actually catastrophic.”
ECOWAS could be doing in order a cut up household, with three different regimes — Mali and Burkina Faso, which border Niger, and Guinea — selecting to aspect with the junta.
On Saturday, Nigeria’s Senate suggested the nation’s president, the present ECOWAS chair, to additional discover choices aside from the usage of drive to revive democracy in Niger, noting the “current cordial relationship between Nigeriens and Nigerians.” Remaining selections by ECOWAS, nonetheless, are taken by a consensus amongst its member international locations.
Niger’s different neighbors embody Chad, whose chief has tried to mediate between the coup plotters and ECOWAS, and Algeria and Libya, which aren’t members of the bloc. This leaves any army intervention by land largely restricted to Nigeria’s 1,600-km (1,000-mile) border with Niger.
MILITARY STRATEGY
It isn’t clear what the technique of army intervention in land-locked Niger would seem like, however the nation enjoys some territorial benefit. With Bazoum being held within the capital, Niamey, the main target will begin there.
With a inhabitants of 25 million, Niger is West Africa’s second-largest nation by way of landmass, spanning over 1.26 million sq. kilometers (486,000 sq. miles) — 100 instances that of Gambia, the place ECOWAS final intervened militarily in 2017.
On the frontline of efforts to reverse the coup in Niger is its longtime ally Nigeria, which has West Africa’s largest army power of 223,000 personnel — 22 instances that of Niger’s 10,000, based on World Financial institution Open Knowledge, and 4 instances that of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger mixed.
In Niger, some imagine the army intervention may contain airstrikes. However with Bazoum nonetheless in detention, he might be each a bargaining software and a defend for the junta.
An intervention drive coming overland from Nigeria must cross a largely unoccupied space that hosts greater than 200,000 refugees who’ve fled violence in northern Nigeria.
Niger’s worldwide airport in Niamey is simply 12 kilometers (7 miles) from the presidential palace the place Bazoum is being held, which might make it harder to be overtaken. The nation has two different worldwide airports, together with one in Agadez, the place the U.S. army operates a drone base.
CONCERNS FOR THE WORLD
The newest army takeover amid a resurgence of coups in West Africa has been significantly regarding for the West, which noticed Niger as its final remaining strategic companion in its counterterrorism battle within the Sahel. Niger additionally issues to the worldwide market on varied fronts, together with its 5% share of the worldwide provide of uranium.
Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser with the Worldwide Disaster Group, warned {that a} army intervention “might additionally deteriorate right into a battle by proxy between forces exterior Africa, between these supporting the restoration of democracy and people supporting the junta, which has taken a robust anti-Western stance.”
On one aspect are Niger’s longtime strategic allies the US and France. On the opposite are Russia and its personal army contractor, Wagner, which have been hailed as allies by the army regimes of Mali and Burkina Faso.
CONSEQUENCES IN NIGER
There are fears that any battle within the occasion of a army intervention by ECOWAS won’t be restricted to Niger’s capital.
“I concern the junta would gladly use its personal individuals as cannon fodder or human shields, and ECOWAS militaries don’t have a superb file in relation to avoiding collateral injury,” mentioned James Barnett, a researcher specializing in West Africa at Hudson Institute.
Even the best-case situation from such an intervention would depart ECOWAS troops stationed within the nation as anti-coup forces for what might be a prolonged interval. That does not look good for democracy, each for the nation and the area, mentioned Powell with Oxford Analytica.
“That will make Bazoum seem like he’s solely a president due to overseas armies, and that’s going to destroy his legitimacy.”
CHALLENGES FOR NIGERIA
Nigeria main the ECOWAS intervention in Niger might face challenges on the homefront, the place its army has struggled with overstretched, outgunned and outnumbered personnel, preventing armed teams which have killed 1000’s previously yr throughout the northern and central areas.
“Nigerian army has inner issues in Nigeria,” mentioned Bello Tangaza, a resident of Tangaza in northern Sokoto state. “They’ve bandits, they’ve Boko Haram — however they’ve did not sort out these issues they usually wish to leap to Niger.”
A army intervention led by Nigeria might shift consideration from the armed teams that generally enter the nation by the porous border with Niger. 4 individuals have been kidnapped by gunmen on Wednesday in Tangaza district, and residents concern the state of affairs will not enhance anytime quickly if the army turns its consideration to Niger.
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AP journalist Sam Mednick in Niamey, Niger, contributed.