Heisman voters have made their choice.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy? Three transfer quarterbacks and a high-profile receiver are the finalists. LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are the quarterbacks, and Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. rounds out the field in what should be a relatively open vote.
All four candidates have a legitimate case to win the Heisman Trophy, which will be awarded at the Heisman Trophy Ceremony at 8 p.m. Saturday on ESPN. A look at the case for each candidate (in alphabetical order by last name):
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Heisman Trophy candidates 2023
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Pros: Daniels is the best-numbers argument. Daniels is the betting favorite to win the award, and with good reason. He passed for 3,812 yards, 40 TDs and four interceptions with a 72.2% completion in his second season as LSU’s starter. He added 1,134 rushing yards and 10 TDs. That’s 4,946 total yards and 50 TDs in 12 games, which are close to 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson’s totals of 5,114 yards and 51 TDs in 13 games that season. Daniels has been that good – and he averaged 423.5 total yards against ranked teams. According to PFF, Daniels had a FBS-best 63.6% completion percentage with 22 TDs and no interception on passes of 20 yards or more.
Cons: Where is the Heisman moment? Daniels had eight total touchdowns against Georgia State, but LSU had three losses this season against Florida State, Ole Miss and Alabama. LSU allowed 47.3 points per game in those losses, so it’s not necessarily on Daniels. Plus, Daniels was knocked out of the Alabama game on Nov. 4 on a late hit by Dallas Turner. There are not a lot of flaws in Daniels’ game, but this would add to the narrative that the Heisman is more of a statistical award than anything else.
One stat: Daniels led the FBS in total offense with 412.2 yards per game. The next closest player – North Carolina’s Drake Maye – totaled 338.1 yards per game. Daniels did that with a FBS-best passer efficiency rating of 208.1.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Pros: Harrison is the best-player-at-his-position-argument. Harrison had the best Heisman slogan in years with “Here comes the son” – a reference to his father. Harrison Jr. had made a name for himself. He totaled 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 14 TDs, and that gives Ohio State a finalist for the fourth consecutive season. Harrison had 15 receptions on 24 targets on passes of 20 yards or more, and caught 7 of 10 on contested catches, according to PFF. Harrison was at his best against Penn State and Michigan, where he totaled 16 catches for 280 yards – an average of xx.x yards per catch – and two TDs.
Cons: The acrobatic TD catches were amazing, especially in the red zone against Wisconsin. Yet like C.J. Stroud the last two years, the loss against Michigan knocked Harrison Jr. down the betting odds. Is that fair? No, but it’s the reality of the voting situation. While Harrison is the best player at his position, Washington’s Rome Odunze and LSU’s Malik Nabers also have legitimate cases for the Biletnikoff Award. That gap might widen in the NFL, but as far as those college statistics go there isn’t a wide separation.
One stat: Harrison Jr. averaged 17.2 yards per catch with 28 TDs the last two seasons for the Buckeyes. Marvin Harrison averaged 20.6 yards per catch with 13 TDs in his final two seasons at Syracuse in 1994-95.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Pros: Nix is the best-story argument considering his career arc. He epitomized efficiency in Oregon’s high-powered offense this season. He led the FBS with a 77.2% completion percentage and ranked second behind Daniels in passer efficiency at 186.3. He finished with 4,145 yards, 40 TDs and three interceptions and added 228 rushing yards and six TDs for one of the most-balanced offenses in the country. It’s a nod to the development of Nix, who had six games with at least 300 yards passing. Nix excelled in the intermediate passing game. According to PFF, Nix had 14 TDs and one interception on throws between 10-20 yards.
Cons: The downside here is Nix was the front-runner for most of November, but a second head-to-head loss to Washington – who is led by Penix – makes it tough to picture Nix winning the award. Nix had a 61.8% completion percentage in the Pac-12 championship, his lowest mark of the season. He also had a season-high 69 rushing yards in the loss. Nix also lacks a true Heisman signature moment that the voters would hook on to.
One stat: Nix had five games this season with an 80% completion percentage, and that with 25 or more passing attempts in each game.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Pros: Penix is the best-player-on-best-team-argument. Penix is the only finalist participating in the College Football Playoff. He led the FBS with 4,218 passing yards – and that came with 33 TDs and nine interceptions. Penix opened the season with three consecutive 400-yard games, and he had nine games with 300 or more passing yards. The left-handed quarterback was the ultimate distributor in a Washington offense that averaged 37.7 points per game. According to PFF, Penix Jr. had 33 big-time throws, which ranked second to Maye by one throw.
Cons: Penix’s production dipped in November, and that allowed Daniels and Nix to dominate the race in the final month of the season. Penix had a 57.9% completion percentage in that month, and he struggled against pressure at times in close victories against Arizona State and Oregon State. Washington, however, still won the games. Penix had 319 passing yards in the Pac-12 championship game. Was that enough to create a Heisman moment? Or will Penix have to settle for second place?
One stat: Penix is 24-2 as a starter at Washington, and that includes 20 straight victories in a streak that dates back to last season.