U.S. Treasury yields: investors consider economic outlook

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of economic data that could provide hints about the economic outlook.

The 2-year Treasury yield was up by about 3 basis points at 4.885%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 2 basis points higher at 4.4%.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Investors weighed the prospects for the economy, as they looked ahead to various economic reports scheduled this week that could signal upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Markets are widely expecting the central bank to have hit the end of the interest rate hiking cycle that it began in early 2022 — but questions linger around how long rates will stay elevated and when they will be cut, as recessionary fears persist.

Fed officials have in recent months repeatedly indicated that monetary policy will remain restrictive until policy goals are met and have provided no signs of when rate cuts may be announced.

Recent data has suggested that higher rates are having the desired effect and inflation is easing, although it remains above the Fed’s 2% target range. The latest reading of the consumer price index reflected a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in October.

Fresh inflation insights are expected on Thursday by way of the personal consumption expenditure price index — a key data point for the Fed.

Before then, investors will get insights into the state of the economy and what could lie ahead from the November consumer confidence survey on Tuesday and from a fresh estimate of the quarterly GDP print. Several Fed officials are also expected to make remarks.

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